🏡 Wondering When Mortgage Rates Will Drop? 📉 Crack the Mortgage Rate Code breaks down the latest insights🔎 into what’s driving rates when they’re likely to fall and stabilize, and how you can time your home purchase to save big in Metro Detroit! 💰 Get expert tips, easy-to-follow strategies, and the confidence to lock in the best rate and make your smartest move yet! 🚀
🔮 Let’s Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save🏡💰 ~ Week Ending May 27, 2025
Hey, Metro Detroit neighbors! 👋 I’ll drop fresh economic insights on where mortgage rates are heading daily, with details. Here we don’t track the ” WHAT“, I’ll focus on the “WHY”. In time, you will learn how to predict those shifts to lock in the best rate at the right time. ⏳💡For Next week’s predictions, 🔮don’t miss What My Crystal Ball 🔮 is Telling Me Regarding Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit at the very end of this article. 💯🏆⤵️
✨Bookmark this post for your weekly insider scoop, and don’t forget to check and bookmark 🔖 Today’s Mortgage Rates: Crack the Code & Save 💲 for daily updates. Stay ahead of the game, time it right, and snag the best deal on your dream home! 🏠🔥
💌 Want exclusive alerts? Get updates straight to your inbox or phone—subscribe to our newsletter 📧 for real-time rate shifts, text alerts, and expert insights! 📩📲 Don’t miss out on your chance to save big! 🚀
📊 The Big Why: What Moved the Markets?
🚨 The bond market and not inflation spiked mortgage rates
The bond market freaked out again—but not from growth… from global fear. 😱The U.S. Treasury needs to sell trillions in bonds to keep the lights on. The bond yield for the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.553%, and mortgage rates followed at 7.08% during the last bond on May 21st. We have another one on Wednesday, June 11th, which could cause mortgage rates to spike on June 12th.
What is Likely Causing this Spike
1️⃣ Bond Vigilantes are back. These investors dumped bonds to protest bad policy, like $4 trillion in new deficit spending and looming tariffs.
2️⃣ Investors, including foreign investors, aren’t buying the bonds. The Treasury must increase the yield price (interest rate it pays) to incentivize buyers. The problem is that the interest they pay is setting the deficit on fire, and the cycle begins. 🔁 The deficit is higher, so we need to sell more bonds at a higher yield, and mortgage rates follow. 👿
3️⃣ Then there are the Big Bond Sell-Offs. When significant funds panic in the stock market, they sell off liquid assets, like Treasuries, to cover margin calls. Worse? Over 33% of U.S. debt is held by foreign countries. Holding $2 trillion, China and Japan are signaling they may use that debt as a bargaining chip. Negotiation or Extortion, you decide. 🤷♀️ Japan has recently been dumping bonds for cash to buy Yen. The Yen has weakened sharply, so the Bank of Japan is intervening. Helps Japan, but it hurts our mortgage market.
4️⃣Hawkish Fed commentary Spillover ~ the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, and unemployment is steady at 4.2%. Other causes of the spike: Corporate Treasury Allocations sell-offs, Hedge Fund Speculators, and the BIG ONE ~ Foreign central Bank Selling, more information below. ⤵️
💡 The bottom line?
If we don’t top up feeding the deficit, everything will cost more — from cars 🚗 to homes 🏠 to your credit card APR 💳.🔮Based on watching trends for years, it doesn’t appear that we won’t see a shift in the bond market until the deficit is under control. The Treasury is chasing its tail because it must offer a higher yield to get investors to buy bonds. However, investors are protesting the bond market due to the high deficit. When the bonds are sold, the Treasury’s early prediction is that it will pay interest of around $952 billion, roughly an 8% increase from 2024. 🔁 See the circle? It’s a self-inflicted loop dragging rates — and the economy — in the wrong direction.
🚨This is Dangerous: 🌍 Top 10 Foreign Bond Holders of the U.S. (as of January 2025)
💥Very Important💥 Foreign Fire Sale? 🔥 Could be BIG Trouble for the U.S.! Roughly 33% of U.S. Treasury bonds are held by foreign countries, with Japan holding over $1 trillion. If these nations start dumping their bonds, it would flood the market, drive down bond prices, and skyrocket interest rates. That means higher mortgage rates, a weaker dollar, and more expensive debt for the U.S. government. For example, the Japanese foreign minister stated, “Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. Treasury Bond holdings could be a bargaining chip in trade talks.“ What sounds like “negotiation leverage” could quickly become economic extortion, hurting American borrowers, businesses, and taxpayers. 💣
🌍 Tracking Foreign Bond Holdings Matters:
When major players, such as Japan, China, or oil-exporting nations, shift their positions in U.S. Treasury securities, the ripple effect is immediate. With today’s escalating tariff tensions, the bond market has already shown signs of stress. A recent surge in bond sell-offs coincided with reports that China may have reduced its Treasury holdings—a calculated move signaling economic pressure back toward the White House. When foreign entities sell off U.S. debt, it drives bond prices down and yields up 📈—pushing mortgage rates higher and rattling financial markets. Tariffs and Bond sell-offs have taken warfare to a new level. 😨
💡In April, we saw what huge bond sell-offs did to the mortgage market. In 5 days, mortgage rates jumped from 6.60% to 7.09%. 👉 Moving forward, I’ll be watching the bond market closely and breaking it all down in Today’s Mortgage Rates—answering the WHY behind rate moves and what it means for your wallet.💵💵 Track all the graphs and trends here.‼️
⚠️Top 10 Foreign Bond Holders
📊 TOP 10 U.S. TRADING PARTNERS (GOODS ONLY) – 2025
📥 Top Import Partners
(Based on U.S. imports from these countries)
📤 Top Export Partners
(Based on U.S. exports to these countries)
🧭 Final Thought: Know Who Holds What—And Why It Matters
As the global economy shifts, watching our top trading partners and foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds is more important than ever.💡 Trading partners shape what we produce, what we consume, and how we price everyday goods. This directly affects jobs, wages, and household costs across America.💰 Foreign bondholders, meanwhile, influence mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and the long-term financial health of our economy.
In short:
🛠️ One drives our economic engine.
💵 The other fuels it.
And when either stumbles, the ripple effects can shake the entire U.S. market.
🚨 That’s why my focus is shifting. Traditional indicators, such as inflation and job reports, are no longer enough. Today, global capital flows and trade imbalances are setting the tone. I will watch 👀 our trading partners and foreign bondholders more closely in the future, as these are the new levers pulling today’s economy.
🔎 Review the Economic Reports that affect the bond and the mortgage markets 📈📉
🚨This week, all eyes 👀 were on Wall Street 🏦 and the bond markets. We could see investors lose their minds 🤯like we’ve seen several times before, and the yield will spike 🚀due to sell-offs. Let’s hope 🤞 inflation remains at 2.3% or lower, and the bond yield market will trend down.
Important Economic 🌩️ Reports that could affect Mortgage Rates next week:
Past Economic Reports that affect the bond market and your mortgage rate 🤯
- 📊 GDP for Q1 (Next Report May 29th): Declined from 2.4 to -.2
- 🔹PCE inflation report Year-over-Year: Down 📉
- 🔸CPI Inflation Report Year-over-Year: Down 📉
- 🔹PPI Inflation Report Year-over-Year: Down 📉
- 👷♂️Initial Jobless Claims & Unemployment 👷♀️: Weekly jobless claims overal this month up and unemployment stayed the same at 4.2%.
- 🚢 Trade Deficit: New low for April at 61.617b betther than expected.
🚨 Metro Detroit, we’re officially in uncharted territory! Now that tariffs are in play, last week’s bond market moves raised serious concerns about growing bets against America. 🏦 The traditional measuring stick for inflation 📏 is no longer a reliable indicator. Thanks to the volatility in the bond market and aggressive tariff moves, we’re watching a new set of rules unfold.🎢 Buckle up because following the daily trends is now critical.💥 Tap into the insights in 🔖 “Today’s Mortgage Rate: Crack the Code and Save” to stay ahead of the curve.
Scroll Through for May’s Economic Trends
Important Dates to Watch ~ 💥These dates will impact mortgage rates immediately 💥
Metro Detroit Neighbors, I’ve been keeping a close eye 👀 on the trends, and now you can too. They will affect your monthly mortgage payment! 💵
- Every Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week are made.
- Jobs Report: July 3rd (First Friday of the Month) 🔥
- CPI Inflation Report: June 11th
- PPI Inflation Report: June 12th
- The Fed Meeting: May June 12th (This meeting will be necessary for evaluating the economy moving forward).
- GDP: May June 26th
- PCE Inflation Report: June 27th (Fed preferred measuring stick) 🔥
- Trade Deficit: July 3rd
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: June 13th
📊 Economists’ Mortgage Rate Projections for 2025: All measurements are out the window. 😤
Back in December, economists crunched the numbers to predict 2025 mortgage rates. There are no rules or benchmarks for economists to follow when projecting where mortgage rates are heading. For now, it’s how Tariffs are affecting the Bond market. YIKES!! 😬
📩 Stay Ahead & Save Big! Want to stay ahead of the curve? ❓ Get real-time mortgage rate alerts 📊, text updates 📲, and expert insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss your chance to lock in the best rate! 🚀💰
📢 How to Keep Up to Date ⤵️
✅ Daily Updates: Today’s Mortgage Rate – What’s Driving the Change? 📉 Stay on top of daily mortgage rate shifts and see exactly what’s moving the market. Plus, compare mortgage rates from different lenders to find the best deal! 💰💡
- 🏡 Home Price vs. Mortgage Rate: Unlock Your Purchasing Power 💪 – Now is the time to create a smart plan! Should you buy now while prices are lower and refinance later when rates drop? Or wait for lower mortgage rates, knowing home prices could rise? I’ll help you break it down so you can confidently calculate your monthly payment. 📊💲
- 📊 Mortgage Payment Calculator Tools – I’ve provided two types of Mortgage Calculators. 1. How much of a home can you afford? 🏠💰2. Mortgage Calculator for monthly payment. Estimate your mortgage payment based on current rates. 📉
- 📈 Home Prices & Real Estate Trends by City – Access live Multiple Listing Service (MLS) graphs tracking real estate trends! 🎯 Start with county-wide data, then zoom in to see trends by city and price range for a detailed market breakdown. 🔍📍
- 📩 Real Estate Insider Newsletter – Want exclusive rate alerts & market updates sent straight to you? Sign up now and get the latest trends delivered right to your inbox! 🚀📬Home
🔎 Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code
Every day, I break down WHY mortgage rates rise or fall daily—so you don’t have to guess! 📉📈 Want to stay ahead? I highly recommend 🔖 bookmarking “Today’s Mortgage Rates” for daily updates on what’s moving the market.
The Weekly Review 🗓️
At the end of this post, I’ll reveal 🔮 What My Crystal Ball is Telling Me About Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit! ⤵️🔮Stay tuned! 🚀🏡💰Now more than ever, you’ll need to track daily rates. ⤴️
📊 Step #1 ~ Track the 10-Year Treasury Yield ~ Your Base #
To crack the mortgage rate code, you need to know one key fact: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Instead, the 10-year Treasury Yield is the base number for daily mortgage rates. 📊💡Where the yield goes, mortgage rates follow. Understanding these market shifts is KEY 🔑 to predicting where rates are headed next! 🚀🏡💰FOLLOW the BOND Market!
Step #2 ~ 💥 Yield + MBS Gap + Mortgage Rates 💥
💥 This is the most critical piece of the puzzle! 💥 If you want to predict mortgage rate movements, you must understand Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). 📊 Once you grasp these trends, you’ll know exactly when to lock your rate and buy your new home confidently, knowing you‘re saving money. 🔑💰
💡 How to Calculate Mortgage Rates
📊 Breaking it down on the Right: 🗓️ Current Mortgage Rates for the week
🔹 The teal graph represents the 10-year Treasury Yield Rate. 📉
🔸 The orange graph shows the MBS Price Gap Rate.📊
➕ Add them together, and you get the mortgage rate—your top number! 💡🏠
Now, let’s talk about the “What-If” on the left scenario. 📉📈 The left-side graph highlights why tracking the MBS Gap Rate is crucial—it directly affects your mortgage rate! Keeping an eye on this gap can help you predict when rates will rise or fall before they do.
🗓️Historical Trends: What the Past Tells Us: 📊 Over the past 50 years, the average MBS Price Gap Rate was 1.72%.📉 In March 2020, when the government stepped in to support the economy, the MBS Gap Rate jumped to 2.75%. At one point, the MBS Gap was higher in the 3.0% range, and Mortgage rates were pushed to 8%. 🚀
Scroll Through the Weekly Mortgage Rates vs. The What If💥Last Week was a Hot 🔥Mess!
Orange = MBS Gap
Teal = 10 =year Treasury Yield
CLICK THE PICTURE TO ENLARGE
📢 The Secret to Tracking When Mortgage Rates Will Drop! 🔥📉
It’s all about supply and demand! 🔄 Investors must trust the economy and gain confidence in the mortgage market. When they add MBS to their portfolios, demand increases, the MBS Gap Rate shrinks, and mortgage rates fall.
📊 MBS Gap Trends ~ The Unsung Hero 🏆or Silent Killer ⚡
💥 The key to lower mortgage rates? The Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Price Gap! 💥 A steady increase in Prices week-over-week and a declining MBS Gap signal that rates are finally trending down and stabilizing. 📉🏡 For months, the MBS market has been in correction mode, but now we need a shift to more mortgage supply, stronger buyer demand, and MBS prices moving back to the 101+ range. 📊💰 Keep watching this trend—it’s the key to permanently unlocking lower mortgage rates in Metro Detroit, not the yo-yo we’ve been experiencing! 🚀💵
📌 MBS Price Gap didn’t decline due to rising prices; it declined over the Fed’s behind-the-scenes adjustments, and adjusted the MBS gap to offset the spike in the 10-year treasury yield.
🤔 Who’s Pulling the Strings Behind Mortgage Rates When the bond yield spikes?
🏆 MBS Price Gap has been our hero this week, keeping mortgage rates lower despite spiking the 10-year treasury yield. 📈 Who makes those decisions?
🔹 It’s often the Federal Reserve, especially the New York Fed Desk. Even when they’re not doing Quantitative Easing (QE), they’re active behind the scenes. They rebalance portfolios, roll over maturing securities, monitor the increase in mortgage demand, and reinvest principal payments. 💼 It’s done behind the scenes at their discretion.
These quiet moves help stabilize spreads and prevent sudden mortgage rate spikes. You won’t see it in headlines, but it plays a huge role. 💡♦️ The Treasury creates the pressure (by issuing more bonds). 🔷 The Fed is the only one who can relieve it (by influencing rates or supporting MBS demand). Neither sets the MBS gap directly, but the Fed can nudge it lower through policy or buying signals.
Mortgage Rate Trends for the Last 4 Months ~
The trends are mortgage base rates, which don’t reflect your credit score, down payment, or lender points.
📉 When Will Mortgage Rates Drop and Stabilize?
The big question❓ remains: When will rates stabilize and keep trending down? 🤔💰 For mortgage rates to hit 6.25%, the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS Gap Rate must align perfectly, just like in the graph below! 👇📉🏡 Keep an eye on these trends to track when rates will drop. 📉💰
For a lasting drop, we need to see two key shifts:
1️⃣ Federal government spending must be controlled 💰🚫—constantly raising the debt ceiling adds uncertainty to the bond market and increases the yield (interest rates treasury pays) at note auctions.
2️⃣ Tariffs and inflation must be monitored closely 📊🔥—new tariffs could drive up costs, making it harder for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target 🎯.
🔮Based on watching trends for years, it doesn’t appear that we won’t see a shift in the bond market until the deficit is under control. The Treasury is chasing its tail because it must offer a higher yield to get investors to buy bonds. But investors are protesting the bond market due to the high deficit. When the bonds are sold, the Treasury’s early prediction is that it will pay interest of around $952 billion, roughly an 8% increase from 2024.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so that you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. ✅✨Got questions❓ or prefer a quick chat 💬Call or Text 📞 248-343-2459. I’m here to help anytime! 🆘 Stay current and ahead of your future competition by visiting the website for updated articles 3 to 4 times a week. Mortgage Rates are updated daily.
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Schedule an Appointment ~ Call | or Zoom Consultation Here
What My Crystal Ball 🔮 is Telling Me about Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit
My crystal ball 🔮 is so upset. What should have been great news 🥳 about Inflation tanked. 🪢 The bond market is fighting for its survival. 🆘 Moving forward, I’ll be expanding what I’m watching 👀 to help bring the future back into focus. 🔮⤵️
📉 Bond Market Turmoil vs. Economic Trends
Starting on April 4 brought serious drama to the bond market in Metro Detroit and beyond. A sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries echoed the 2020 “dash for cash,” shaking Wall Street’s confidence. 📈 Investors began dumping U.S. dollars and Treasuries, signaling fears of instability in the financial system. Some experts even suggest a brief recession may be needed to restore balance. The U.S. Treasury bond holdings could be a bargaining chip in the tariff negotiations. I think it’s more like economic extortion. 😱 This volatility is far from over. It just carries over week after week. 👿
🧭 Recession Verdict: Hard Landing Likely?
It’s not just talk anymore—many believe the U.S. economy is heading toward a hard landing. 📉 Between volatile bonds, sky-high tariffs, and shrinking confidence, warning signs are everywhere. Expect inflation spikes, supply chain delays, and tighter lending conditions ahead.
🚨‼️ Now more than ever, I recommend bookmarking 🔖 “Crack Today’s Mortgage Rates and Save”. Please don’t count on the crystal ball🔮; we are now in uncharted territory. Request our newsletter, and I’ll keep you updated with breaking news. 🆘🛟
💥 Heads up: Inflation measurements moving forward won’t tell the full story 😕 because of the tariff policies. The storm may still be forming. 🌪️🔮If you have questions 📲 text or call 248-343-2459!
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