Today’s Mortgage Rates: Let’s crack the code 🔢 for Metro Detroit and take control of your home financing! ☀️ Every morning, I track economic trends. By afternoon, I’ll post the actual numbers 🔢, share mortgage quote links 🔗, and reveal what my crystal ball 🔮 says about today’s rates. So you know exactly when to lock your rate and save! 💸Don’t just follow the market ~ Master learning how to predict mortgage rates! 🎓
📆 Today’s Mortgage Rates ~ June 19, 2025 ~ Markets are Closed 🏦🔒
Mortgage rates aren’t just about the numbers 📊—they’re about WHY those numbers change.💡 Understanding what’s driving rates up or down helps you make smarter, more informed decisions. I track economic trends, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and movements in the bond and securities markets. The goal is to uncover the real story behind the headlines. You’re not just getting a rate update anymore — you’re gaining insight into what’s really driving the economy.
📌Track the WHY, Not the WHAT! ⤵️
The mortgage market is getting wonky again. I’ll break down the important 🚨WHYs for The Week in “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code: Know the Why 💡 and Save“ 💲, including graphs. We’ll take the essential deep dive through the week and decode all the twists and turns. We’ll review the economy, Wall Street moves, the Fed’s decisions, and what’s next for mortgage rates. More importantly, your monthly payment for the coming week.🗓️I’m watching the trends closely 👀 so you don’t have to!
🚨 Morning Predictions ~ All 👀 Are on the Bond Market ~ 6-18-2025
Market Reports updated @12:30 update! The market is trending down 🕧
🌞 Good Morning, Metro Detroit! The bond market has cooled this morning. Mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the news. Tracking early movements 👀 through 1:00 pm is critical when lenders typically finalize rate revisions. That’s how you know when to lock your rate on the downturn.
💥 Today’s Mortgage Rate WHY!
Looks like the bond market is done with the drama this morning 🥳
After Monday’s spike in the 10-year Treasury yield—fueled more by fear than facts—it’s finally reacting in line with actual economic data—no more guessing games. 📉 I’ll be tracking both the Treasury yield and MBS prices by the hour because these two numbers directly impact lenders’ rate sheets. If either shifts, we could see lenders reprice rates multiple times today—up or down.
⚠️ And keep your eye on tomorrow: Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.
Any signals on future interest rate cuts or changes in Federal Reserve policy could trigger another market reaction—and a new mortgage rate trend.📲 I’ll break it all down for you—before it hits your wallet.
💡 The Bottom Line
If the government doesn’t stop feeding the deficit, everything will cost more — from cars 🚗 to homes 🏠 to your credit card APR 💳.📈 Government spending is the real issue — to fund the deficit, they sell bonds. However, the Treasury must offer a much higher yield because investors are wary. That high yield means more interest to pay, which creates more debt, forcing them to…👉 Sell even more bonds — at even higher yields. See the circle of the self-inflicted loop dragging rates — and the economy — in the wrong direction. ⚠️ Want to see all the economic graphs and learn how they affect your future mortgage rate %? Visit: “🔍 Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and ‘Save”
📢 Your Formula for Early Mortgage Rate Predictions ~ 6-18-2025
📌 10-Year Treasury Yield: Your Mortgage Rate Base will Skyrocket today 📈
The 10-year Treasury yield is where it all begins. The yield number sets the tone for mortgage rates. So far this morning, the bond yield has declined. Take the win, 🥇 mortgage rates will be lower in round #1. Let’s see if it holds. 🤔 To know WHY, the answers are at the end, “What My Crystal Ball is Telling Me About the Market Today. 🔮
🧠 Two Forces Drive the Bond Market
1. The Long End of the Curve (10-Year Treasury) ~ This is where mortgage rates take their cues. The deficit impacts how the Treasury raises money by selling bonds to pay debt. That’s why economists have predicted mortgage rates will stay between 6.5% and 7%. Due to spending, the bond market won’t go down easily.
2. The Front End of the Curve (Short-Term)
This is based on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The market is priced in two rate cuts for this year, and now we may see an adjustment to one. The Fed does this to fight or slow inflation and stabilize the economy. Know the difference between Mortgage rates and interest rates.
📌This is where the Formula Starts ⤵️
Scroll to see the 5-Day Yield Rates
🚨 Revision at 1:30 🕜
Two Mortgage Rate Day?
🤯 Remember: Lenders may adjust mortgage rates up or down if the 10-year yield shifts by ±0.020% until 1:00 PM I’m watching 👀to see if this spike holds, or if we get a late-day correction lower.
Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices ~ The Unsung Hero 🏆or Silent Killer
The second piece to determining mortgage rates is the all-important 💥 Mortgage-backed Securities. Historically, the past 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates hovers around 1.72%. Right now? We’re still well above that. The average for the past few months has been around the high 2.45% to 2.5% range.
Why does that matter? Lenders use that spread to price mortgage rates. Fewer home sales create fewer mortgages, which means fewer mortgage-backed securities hit the market. Less supply equals higher risk premiums, which means higher mortgage rates. So, yes, fewer homes sold feed into higher mortgage rates.
📌 Today’s MBS price Gap: will they be our Hero 🏆 or Villain 🦹
MBS Prices are up by only .07%, which could have a minimal positive impact on mortgage rates.
- 🏆 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. That puts downward pressure on mortgage rates.✅ Result: Lenders can offer lower interest rates because the value of the mortgage bond (the MBS) is stronger.
It’s a win for buyers, refinancers, and anyone trying to lock in a better deal. - 🦹Villain Mode:
Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting.
Buyers lose buying power—and urgency to lock becomes critical.
🔍Always follow the WHY!🚀
Early Mortgage Rate Prediction graph Below ⤵️
👉 Sellers take note: These shifts affect your buyers’ loan approvals, payments, and urgency. Stay informed to time your listing right. 🏡Markets move fast, so being ahead of the curve can help you protect your equity and plan smarter. 💼📆
💡 Pro Tip: If you plan to make an offer on a house in Metro Detroit, it’s essential to understand how these economic shocks impact the mortgage market. Knowing the trends and how to predict will give you a serious edge when negotiating. Have a plan in place to know before you lock in your rate. 🔮 Stay tuned for this afternoon’s update at the bottom of the article: What My Crystal Ball Is Telling Me About Today’s Mortgage Rates.⤵️
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s 🏦 Policy on Rate Revisions ~ Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember, the Yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the lender’s timeline before locking your rate is critical if you want to save. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of knowing why lenders raise or lower mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁
💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵💲
🔮 Today’s Mortgage Rate Prediction ~ 6-18-2025 ~ Updated at 12:30 🕧
So far this morning, the 10-year treasury yield has declined slightly since Friday, and mortgage rates will follow. We are watching for possible afternoon bond sell-offs 👀 if rates shift at 1:00. This blog post will update the latest bond yield by 12:30ish and lender updates by 3:30. 💥The below examples are why you need to know how your lender will handle mortgage rate shifts and what time they determine their rates.
🔷 Scenario #1 Predictions: first yield report:
The 10-year bond yield has plummeted from .040% to 4.375%. MBS could play a role Today and help lower mortgage rates slightly. (+ or – .01%) Early Prediction: 6.83% to 6.85%.
🚨🔶 Scenario #2 Predictions: Post Lunch Reprice shifts after 11:00 🕚
👀 Watching trends between 11:00 and 1:30 for stabilization or revision. This is why it’s important to know when your lender pulls their rate sheets, how many times a day they will post it, and under what circumstances they will change their rate price sheet during what window. 🕧Update: Lenders are hedging the bet. If lenders price too aggressively down and the bond market reverses course later, they eat the loss. Instead, they left pricing conservative to protect themselves if the yield trends back up at 10:35. It didn’t bounce back up to the 4.361 until 1:02, and they still should have put rates closer to 6.85% vs 6.87%. Watch for a lender revision.
🚨♦️ Scenario #3 Revision ⤵️: Lender Revision around 3:00
If the bond market cools off or spikes, you could see a Lender rate revision based on the yield trends after the original rate price sheet was released. 🚨 Today, the bond yield cooled off after 11:00 to the 4.355% range. Lenders may reprice this afternoon lower, coming in at the earlier prediction of 6.83% to 6.85%. 💥 Check with your lender before you lock!
🚨 Today’s Prediction ~ MBS Gap will play a role Today: Villain 🦹 🚨12:30 REvision
🔖Import Article to Bookmark⤵️
👈 Updated with detailed breaking news and trends 🧠💥Due to shifting mortgage markets, tariff wars, and bond market chaos, I’m no longer waiting for the weekend to update. 📊 You’ll find fresh graphs, clear trends, and smart insights on where the economy and mortgage rates are heading. 📉📈
The Fed can no longer stay proactive—they’re now in reactive mode, which changes everything from your rate watch to home buying plans. ⚠️🏠
🕐 Afternoon Update: Where Did Mortgage Rates Land? 6-16-2025 ~ 🕝2:30 Update ~ The bond Market is having a tantrum!
⏳ Your Afternoon Why:
- Lenders were expecting the yield to rise today, so they made the adjustment with the MBS Price Gap. 🦹
- If lenders don’t adjust their Mortgage Rate Price Sheet this afternoon, we may see an MBS correction tomorrow.
🤔 Who’s Pulling the Strings Behind Mortgage Rates When the bond yield spikes?
🏆 MBS Price Gap has been our hero this week keeping mortgage rates lower even though the 10-year treasury yield spiked. 📈 Who make those decisions?
🔹 It’s often the Federal Reserve, especially the New York Fed Desk. Even when they’re not doing Quantitative Easing (QE), they’re active behind the scenes. They rebalance portfolios, roll over maturing securities, monitor the increase in demand for mortgages and reinvest principal payments. 💼 It’s done behind the scenes at their discretion.
These quiet moves help stabilize spreads and prevent sudden mortgage rate spikes. You won’t see it in headlines, but it plays a huge role. 💡♦️ The Treasury creates the pressure (by issuing more bonds). 🔷 The Fed is the only one who can relieve it (by influencing rates or supporting MBS demand). Neither sets the MBS gap directly, but the Fed can nudge it lower through policy or buying signals.
Mortgage Rate Trends Over the Last 5 Months
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View More
📌 Update from MDN’s: It’s a diffecult time for the bond market and mortgage rates. The rules have already changed in a big way to accomodate the new wild card 🃏 presented by tariff policies.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! 📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so that you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. ✨Would you prefer an in-person meeting 🗓️ or a quick phone call at 248-343-2459 📞 instead? No problem! Let’s set up a time that fits your schedule.
Contact me with any Questions
Schedule an Appointment ~ Call | or Zoom Consultation Here
⌛What My Crystal Ball 🔮 Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Let’s be real—all the tools we once used to measure the economy and mortgage rates are useless now. 🛠️🚫. Economists predicted mortgage rates would hit 6.62% in Q1 ending March 31; it was close. March closed out rates at 6.74%. Mortgage Rates spiked in April, reaching a high of 7.09%. 📈 Unless something drastically changes, economists will need to revise their mortgage rate projections again. Since April, the trends have stayed closer in the 6.85% to 6.99% range with an occasional spike up to 7.8%. 👿
❓ Why are The Feds and Wall Street on Edge?
👉 First, understand how tariffs can affect the 10-year Treasury bond and Mortgage-backed Securities by checking out “Why Mortgage Rates and the Bond Market Are at Risk: Trade War Fallout“ for important details.
📌 WHY?
📉 1. 10-Year Yield at 4.37*% — Safe Haven Alert
Despite sticky inflation and no Fed cut, that drop in the 10-year Treasury yield signals that investors are bracing for geopolitical risk, not just economic softness.
- A falling yield means big money is moving into bonds—a classic flight to safety.
- Stocks stalled today even with a soft jobs print and tame inflation, which usually boost equities.
- That pause likely means investors are hedging for something bigger: escalation in the Middle East.
🛢️ 2. Iran Tensions Driving Market Caution
With U.S. forces already positioned in the Gulf and rumors of advanced weapons on standby:
- Investors may be pricing in the potential for a military strike on Iran.
- If oil supply routes are threatened—even slightly—it could spark a short-term oil spike and longer-term market correction.
🔀 3. Stocks vs Bonds = Conflict Pricing
- Stocks = risk assets, and they’re flat or drifting.
- Bonds = safety, and they’re getting bought, pushing yields down.
This divergence strongly suggests Wall Street is in “wait and watch” mode—preparing for possible military headlines over the weekend or next week.
📊 4. Volatility Is Lurking Just Beneath the Surface
- The VIX (volatility index) remains low for now, but oil and bond market traders are quietly repositioning.
- Any new strike or rhetoric could whiplash the bond and equity markets next week.
🎯 Bottom Line:
Yes—investors appear to quietly shift toward safety in anticipation of a possible geopolitical escalation with Iran.
The 4.36*% yield drop is your clue: bond buyers are making moves even if the headlines haven’t hit yet. We’ve entered a new economic phase where the old rules no longer apply. The Fed 🏦 may be unable to delay a pivot much longer. Inflation is no longer the only metric. Between the tariffs and “The Big Beautiful Bill“, the bond market is the canary in the coal mine, and it’s gasping. 🐤
💥 The Treasury’s Dirty Little Secret is OUT!
For decades, the U.S. Treasury quietly relied on foreign nations to bankroll our debt, with China and Japan footing the bill. Still, that cozy setup is falling apart thanks to escalating trade wars and ballooning deficits Whether you love or hate President Trump, his aggressive tactics pulled back the curtain and exposed just how fragile our financial system is The result The bond market is on edge, with fewer willing buyers and a government scrambling to stay afloat. ⚠️💣
💠Furthermore, as the Fed pulls back and global buyers disappear, the question becomes: Who will buy all our debt bonds? GDP contracted, and now tariffs are part of our economy; I’m afraid to see what May’s report will reveal. This is scary stuff. Maybe the government needs to rethink how it buys and sells government bonds.
🗓️ Important Date to Track ~ They will impact your Rate.🎢
For future predictions and to answer this week’s WHY 🔮, visit “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code, Know the Why 💡and Save 💲“. All the economic trends from Trading Economics will be displayed. 📈📉 Not only will it help you understand mortgage rate trends, and it will also give you key insights into the economy. 🙌To stay up to date, request our newsletter.
Dates to Watch: They could immediately affect mortgage rates. ⤵️
- Every Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week are made.
- Jobs Report: June 6th (First Friday of the Month) 🔥
- CPI Inflation Report: May 13th
- PPI Inflation Report: May 15th
- The Fed Meeting: June 17th and 18th (This meeting will be necessary to evaluate the economy moving forward).
- PCE Inflation Report: May 30th (Fed preferred measuring stick) 🔥
- Trade Deficit: June 5th
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: May 16th
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