Today’s Mortgage Rates: Slight Dip 📢
Updated: January 22, 2026 • 12:59 PM ET
Track the Why, not the what:🗓️ January 22, 2026
Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s driving the change isn’t just about the daily number that pops up. I’m going to break down and explain the WHY behind Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s Driving the Change in Metro Detroit! Learn the WHY the rate moves so you can spot trends before they shift. By understanding the bond market, the MBS gap, and the Fed’s hidden influence, you’ll know when to lock your rate on a dip—not a spike.
Why the Yield Spiked and Mortgage Rate with it📊
Last week, something weird happened in the world of money. U.S. Treasury bond yields suddenly jumped — fast. But it wasn’t because prices were rising again. It wasn’t because the Federal Reserve made a big announcement. It wasn’t because the economy changed overnight. It happened because other countries quietly sent the United States a message.
🌍 The Secret Language Countries Use
Imagine countries talking to each other, but instead of using words, they use money. When a country doesn’t like what the U.S. government is doing, they don’t usually:
- Make angry speeches
- Post online
- Or hold dramatic press conferences
- They do something much simpler:
They sell U.S. bonds. Or they stop buying new ones. It’s like saying, “We’re not thrilled with you right now,” but in money language. And last week, that’s precisely what happened.
🔁 Why It Felt Like April 2025 All Over Again
This wasn’t the first time. Back in April 2025:
- The U.S. announced new tariffs
- Foreign countries got annoyed
- They sold some U.S. bonds
- Bond yields shot up
- Mortgage rates jumped
It wasn’t a disaster. It was more like a dashboard warning light blinking. Last week looked almost the same, but not as drastic as it was in April 2025.
⚠️ What Set It Off This Time
The White House made new tariff threats over Greenland and took a tough stance toward several countries. Those countries opposed to the White House’s stance on Greenland weren’t going to take the tariff threats lightly. It wasn’t a crash, it was more like a warning shot. A gentle but clear message: “We don’t like these policies. And remember — we own a lot of your debt.” They didn’t dump everything. They just nudged the market enough to make sure Washington noticed, and it worked. By Wednesday, the White House announced no new tariffs, but the damage was done; the 10-year Treasury yield is still up by .1%, keeping mortgage rates higher.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield – Update by 10:30 🕥
1-22-2026
The Yield has Spiked Higher
Since the 10-year Treasury sell-off began late Friday afternoon, the bond market has seen little relief. Still, .100% higher than the average. 👿
Two Mortgage Rate Days?
🤯 Remember: Lenders may adjust mortgage rates up or down if the 10-year yield shifts by ±0.020% until 1:00 PM. I’m watching 👀 to see if this spike holds or if we get a late-day correction lower.
Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices Today
🚨 The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%. Currently, the average range has plummeted from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.
📌 Today’s MBS Gap: Hero 🦸 or Villain 🦹Update by 11:30 🕦
📰 Mortgage Daily News reports that MBS prices have remained the same and could have a minimal impact on Mortgage Rates today.
- 🦸 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. That puts downward pressure on mortgage rates.
- 🦹Villain Mode:
Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, 🚀 the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie 🏦 have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical.
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s Policy on Rate Revisions – Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember: yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the Lender’s timeline before locking your rate is crucial to saving. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of understanding why lenders adjust mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your Lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵
Today’s early prediction ~ Updated by 11:30 🕦
I’m not making predictions right now ⚠️ The FHFA Policy desk is not following the economic math. The policy desk is setting new rules, and the FHFA is compressing the MBS spread to keep rates artificially low. This price action does not match normal investor demand or normal math. That’s why I’m watching, verifying, and researching — not guessing 🧠
+ or – FHFA Policy Desk Changes the Math
🦸♂️ Hero Scenario
The FHFA policy gap may compress the gap slightly to bring the rates down to 6.19%
📌 Neutral
MBS gap from yesterday at 1.927% plus today’s yield at 4.271%, that would put mortgage rates at 6.20%.
🦹♂️ Villain Scenario
NONE ~ Math will not apply today
Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save
📅 This article is updated on Sundays by noon with the latest economic trends that affect mortgage rates. Take a peek at where we were and where we are heading next!🔖 Bookmark it to stay informed!
👈 Updated with detailed breaking news and trends 🧠💥Due to shifting mortgage markets, tariffs, and bond market chaos, I update on Sunday, where mortgage rates could be heading into next week. 📊 You’ll find updated graphs from Trading Economics, clear trends, and smart insights on where the economy and mortgage rates are heading next. 📉📈
The Fed is now in proactive mode—not reactive. If this continues, this may help stabilize the bond market and mortgage rates. ⚠️🏠
Today’s Mortgage Rate Answers
Unfortunately, mortgage rates are not declining as quickly as they rose. The sell-off on Tuesday is still causing volatility in bond yields today.
Bottom line ~ MBS Gap is the hero keeping the rate low
One headline changed the market’s direction today. Knowing how these chain reactions work helps you stay a step ahead in real estate decisions.
- August Month-End mortgage rates closed at 6.50%
- September Month-End Mortgage Rates closed at 6.37%
- October Month-End Mortgage Rates Closed at 6.28%
- November Month-End Mortgage Rates Closed at 6.22%
- December Month-End Mortgage Rates Closed at 6.20%
Why does the Yield Remain High
Mortgage rates aren’t being held up by the Fed anymore. They aren’t being driven by lenders either. The real reason hasn’t changed: the bond market.
The Treasury auction made that clear. Investors refused to accept lower-yield coupons, and yields jumped immediately. On 12/9, the 10-year yield spiked to 4.178%. A month later, nothing has changed. Last month’s 10-year auction was priced at 4.175%. January 12’s coupon is 4.173%. Same level, same resistance.
🌍 Now we add a new problem with the 10-year treasury yield, sell-offs. When foreign countries want to make their point known to the White House, this has proven to be a tool they use to be heard. They’ve used it before, and it works.
Mbs Gap Trends for the Past 3 months
Why MBS Prices Are Being Compressed by the FHFA
📌 The MBS gap hasn’t been following the math consistently since August. 🧮 The FHFA Policy Desk is determining the outcome of where they want rates to land. Remember, the Federal Reserve doesn’t determine mortgage rates; instead, the 10-year Treasury yield (set by Treasury Department bond sales) and the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) gap, set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, do.
FHFA Policy Desk
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Capital Markets Desks
⬇️⬇️⬇️
MBS Market
(Pricing & Spreads)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Lenders
(Rate Sheets)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Borrowers
(Final Mortgage Rate)
Monthly Gap Stabilization Plan
The Fed desk is trying to narrow the MBS gap back to the 50-year average of 1.72%, or at least to 1.88%, as in February 2020, before the shutdown changed everything.
🧠 Why You Can’t Predict FHFA / GLS’s Gap Logic Anymore
1️⃣ The Gap Is No Longer Mathematical—It’s Tactical 
2️⃣ They’re Using the Gap as a Smokescreen 🎭
3️⃣ Wall Street’s emotional sabotage meets forensic clarity🧮
- August Month-end Gap: 2.272
- September Month-end Gap: 2.245
- October Month-end Gap: 2.201
- November Month-end Gap: 2.211
- December Month-end Gap: 2.057 (huge compression from the Fed desk)
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Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before you even start searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen to give you a clear view of market insights so you can make confident, informed decisions about your next steps! ✅✨
What My Crystal Ball Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Based on months of prior bond auctions, we know Wall Street isn’t taking the bait. For investors to purchase bonds, they are demanding higher coupon rates. The Treasury needs to STOP🛑increasing the deficit; they are burning through cash. If we don’t get our spending in check and stop feeding the deficit, we won’t see a significant change in mortgage rates.
Next, we have a new problem: the White House is using tariffs as a weapon to get what it wants. The last fiasco, involving tariffs on countries that opposed the Greenland takeover, sent mortgage rates skyrocketing. WHY? Because countries hold Millions to Billions of our bond debt. When countries decide to sell bonds prematurely to get their message to the White House, their policies won’t be tolerated. That bond sell-off will cause the 10-year Treasury yield to spike, and mortgage rates will follow. The bond market is still volatile. If you understand the WHY, you can predict the next dip and save thousands over the lifetime of your loan.
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