Today’s Mortgage Rates: Let’s crack the code 🔢 for Metro Detroit and take control of your home financing! 💸Don’t just follow the market ~ Master learning how to predict mortgage rates! 🎓
📆 Today’s Mortgage Rates ~
Track the Why, not the what: September 12, 2025
Mortgage rates aren’t just about the daily number that pops up. It’s more about the WHY that number moves. 📉💡Understanding the economic forces, Fed policy shifts, and bond market trends behind rate changes helps you make smarter, more confident decisions. Each week, I break down the “WHY” behind the moves. It goes far beyond the headlines, revealing the deeper story of what drives rates and affects your monthly payment. 🧠💲
This week, we’ll decode the latest market twists. I’ll cover the Fed’s next move, and whether Wall Street’s expectations are realistic — all inside “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code: Know the Why 💡 and Save.” I’ll lay out all the graphs, trends, and what’s driving mortgage rates today and into next week. 👀 I’m watching the trends, so you don’t have to! 👍
🚨 Morning Predictions ~ All 👀 Are on the Bond Market & Securities ~ 9-12-2025
Good Morning, Metro Detroit! 🌩️ I’m tracking early movements 👀 through 1:00 pm, as this is critical when lenders typically finalize rate sheet revisions. That’s how you know when to lock your rate on the dip 📉, not the spike. 🚀
🚨 Your Mortgage Rate: Why!
🚨 I’m shocked this is the second month in a row the PPI and CPI inflation report didn’t rattle Wall Street and create CHAOS! It appears the yield is looking for balance. The job reports caused the yield to plummet last week. This week will be dealing with inflation reports, and traders are betting that even though inflation is up, the Fed will still cut the interest rate. Here are the key takeaways from the jobs report. This morning, the Department of Labor revised its job growth, down by 911,000 through March, signaling the economy is on a shakier footing than realized. Fear is in the air, causing the yield to increase today. 😮
The Fed desk, starting in August, has been compressing the MBS gap. The MBS gap started at 2.400% on 8-1 and as of yesterday, it is down to 2.262%, that’s a drop of .138%. Between the yield plummeting and the MBS gap compressions, mortgage rates fell from 6.63% to 6.28% as of yesterday. That’s a .35% drop in 5 weeks. 🎉🎊🥳
Recession is front and center again. This time, the concern is over the 10-year Treasury yield plummeting 0.216% since September 2.
🥳 The good news for buyers with a secured job is that mortgage rates have declined from 6.53% to 6.29%.
⚠️ The Economy’s Effect on Mortgage Rates:
🧨 1. Tariffs Are Driving Prices Up
- The average effective tariff rate has surged to 17.4%, the highest since 1935.
- Tariffs on metals, electronics, and imported components are inflating input costs across sectors.
- Manufacturers report 24% price hikes just to offset tariff costs—no margin gain, just survival.
- Consumer passthrough is real: 61–80% of tariff costs are hitting household budgets.
- Trump’s tariffs are coming home to Roost: 4 ripple effects you cannot ignore.
- Made in the USA has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components.” — ISM survey respondent.
🏭 2. Manufacturing Is Contracting
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for six straight months, signaling contraction.
- August’s PMI was 48.7, still in shrink mode despite a slight uptick in new orders.
- Firms are freezing hiring and capital spending due to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- Manufacturing jobs are down 78,000 year-to-date, with 12,000 lost in August alone.
- Losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, hiring has frozen.
👷♂️ 3. The Labor Market is Wobbling
- August added just 22,000 jobs, far below forecasts.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, and long-term joblessness rose by 385,000 over the year. June’s job data was revised down—13,000 jobs lost, not gained.
- Employers are hiring 29,000/month on average (June–August), down from 168,000/month in 2024.
🏛️ 5. Wall Street:
🚢 7. Inflation Reports This week: ⤵️
📉 PPI Cools Off, CPI reveal Pass thorugh ~ Bond Market Shrugs:
What It Means for Mortgage Rates
🔍 Quick Recap of Today’s Data
📉 PPI (Producer Price Index)
- Headline PPI (Aug): –0.1% vs forecast +0.3% — a surprise deflationary print
- Core PPI (ex food & energy): +0.3% MoM, steady YoY at 2.8% — still sticky
- PPI YoY: 2.6%, down from 3.1% — confirming upstream softening
- Producer Price Index (PPI): Year-over-Year (YoY): Down 0.05% ~ Month-over-Month (MoM): From +0.7% to -0.1% ~ Core PPI (excludes food & energy):YoY: Down 0.8% ~ MoM: From +0.08% to -0.1%.
Today’s PPI report shows cooling producer costs, which should be a positive sign for inflation trends. But despite the soft numbers, Wall Street and the bond market didn’t budge. The 10-year yield remained flat until today.
📈 CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- Headline CPI (Aug): +0.4% MoM vs forecast +0.3% — hotter than expected
- Core CPI (ex food & energy): +0.3% MoM, YoY steady at 3.1%
- Core Core CPI (ex food, energy, shelter, used cars): unofficial but widely tracked — now at 2.5%, which is your sweet spot for forensic clarity.
Despite upstream relief, consumer inflation remains sticky. That 2.5% Core Core CPI is your forensic lens—stripped of lagging shelter and volatile energy. It’s the cleanest signal of real inflation drift.
🧨 Jobless Claims
- Initial claims (week of Sept 6): 263,000 vs forecast 236,000 — a 27K spike, highest since Oct 2021
- 4-week average: 240,500 — sharpest weekly jump since Dec 2020
That’s not just noise—it’s a labor market crack. The Fed’s illusion of a “solid” jobs market is unraveling, and this spike aligns with pessimistic labor surveys across the board.
🏦 What This Means for the Economy
The bond market blinked. After days of flat yields despite soft PPI, today’s CPI and jobless claims triggered a Treasury retreat. The 10-year yield’s drop to 4.019% confirms that Wall Street is reassessing risk. We’re in a stagflation corridor—cooling producer costs, sticky consumer inflation, and rising labor stress. The Fed’s credibility is on the line, and the market is starting to price in a pivot.
This lack of reaction tells us:
- Investors already priced in cooling inflation.
- Markets are focused on CPI data, jobs numbers, and Fed guidance rather than a single PPI print.
- Bond traders are cautious about making moves before Powell speaks next week.
🏡 Mortgage Rate Outlook
For now, mortgage rates should decline today. Here’s what to watch:
- If the Fed signals a rate cut path next week, we could see yields and mortgage rates drift lower. If Powell doubles down on a “higher for longer” message, rates may stay locked where they are for now.
- The MBS gap remains tight, which limits lender flexibility to drop rates even when yields fall slightly.
🧮 Bottom Line:
The pass-through arc is confirmed. PPI shows cooling producer costs, Core Core CPI remains sticky at 2.5%, and jobless claims surged. At 10:00, the bond market held firm at 4.019%, but by 10:05 it cracked—dropping to 4.009% and falling. That’s a real-time pivot. Lenders now face a pricing dilemma: lock in the dip or wait for 10:30 confirmation.
We’re in a stagflation corridor—falling upstream costs, sticky consumer inflation, and rising labor stress. The Fed’s credibility is strained, and the bond market is finally blinking. Mortgage rate movement now hinges on whether this 4.009% yield holds or rebounds.
📅 Next Week: Fed’s Decision Looms
The Federal Reserve meets next week, and this is the moment that will set the tone for fall rates. If you’re in the market to buy or refinance, this is a key time to watch the bond market and lock timing closely.
Knowledge unlocks your next step. Stay tuned for next week’s Fed coverage and real-time updates on what it means for your home financing strategy.
Why it Matters to Both Buyers and Sellers
👨👩👧👦 For Buyers: Today’s drop to 6.29% — with rates likely sliding a bit lower today — means real savings if you’re ready to act. However, remember that this dip is driven by Fed Desk compression and shaky market confidence, rather than genuine stability. It appears that mortgage rates reached the White House’s goal of 6.5% by the end of August.
🎯 For Sellers: The stable yield, paired with MBS gap compression, is giving buyers some breathing room. Mortgage rates fell to 6.29% today and are expected to remain at this level today, even if there’s a slight gap correction. That means more buyers can afford to stay in the game, keeping demand alive and supporting stronger offers if you’re listing now.
💡 Final Thoughts:
Mortgage rates don’t just “happen.” They follow the bond market. When yields climb, it’s a signal of inflation fears, heavy government borrowing, or weaker global demand—knowing that “WHY” helps you make confident, fact-driven decisions — instead of guessing when it comes to important decisions like a mortgage.
Understanding how these reports impact the market gives you the power to act before rates change. The goal is protecting your bottom line, whether you’re buying or selling. Now more than ever, it will be essential to follow the trends. All the latest economic graphs are in the blog post, “Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save.💲”
Yield Update at 10:00 🕙 for 9-12-2025
The 10-Year Treasury Yield is your base. Will there be a spike or a Dip at 10:00? 🕙
The 10-year Treasury yield is where it all begins. The yield number sets the tone for mortgage rates. I’ll follow the yield to determine Today’s prediction. Today’s yield rate has increased and is remaining stable.
🧩 This pattern signals one thing:
The market is pausing — neither rallying nor panicking. We’re in a holding pattern where MBS pricing, yields, and lender strategy are all balancing delicately.
📌This is where the Formula Starts ⤵️
Scroll to see the 5-day Yield Rates
Two Mortgage Rate Day?
🤯 Remember: Lenders may adjust mortgage rates up or down if the 10-year yield shifts by ±0.020% until 1:00 PM. I’m watching 👀 to see if this spike holds or if we get a late-day correction lower.
Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices ~ The Unsung Hero 🦸 or the Villain🦹
The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%. Currently, the average range has plummeted to under 2.300% from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.
📌 Today’s MBS price Gap: will they be our Hero 🦸 or Villain 🦹
Mortgage Daily News reports that MBS pricing has increased slightly and could have a minimal impact on mortgage rates today. The Fed Security desk has been working behind the scenes all month, seemingly disregarding the pricing rules. The Fed desk is compressing the gap to keep mortgage rates lower after the yield spikes. MBS pricing is not following the standard rules due to market volatility. Today, the correction may be minimal.
- 🦸 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. That puts downward pressure on mortgage rates.✅ Result: Lenders can offer lower interest rates because the value of the mortgage bond (the MBS) is stronger. It’s a win for buyers, refinancers, and anyone seeking to secure a better deal.
- 🦹Villain Mode:
Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, 🚀 the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie 🏦 have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical.
🔍Always follow the WHY!🚀
Early Mortgage Rate Prediction graph Below ⤵️
👉 Sellers take note: These shifts affect your buyers’ loan approvals, payments, and urgency. Stay informed to time your listing right. 🏡Markets move fast, so being ahead of the curve can help you protect your equity and plan smarter. 💼📆
💡 Pro Tip: If you plan to make an offer on a house in Metro Detroit, it’s essential to understand how these economic shocks impact the mortgage market. Understanding trends and how to predict them will give you a serious edge when negotiating. Have a plan in place to know before you lock in your rate. 🔮 Stay tuned for this afternoon’s update at the bottom of the article: What My Crystal Ball Is Telling Me About Today’s Mortgage Rates.⤵️
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s 🏦 Policy on Rate Revisions ~ Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember, yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the Lender’s timeline before locking your rate is crucial to save. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of understanding why lenders adjust mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your Lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵💲
🔮 Today’s Mortgage Rate Prediction: 9-11-2025 ~ Mortgage rates will be lower today 🥳🕚
This blog post will update the latest bond yield changes up to Noon. Mortgage Daily News reports the first mortgage rate base between 12:30 and 1:00, and Lender revision updates by 3:30. 💥The examples below show why you need to know how your Lender will handle mortgage rate shifts and what time they determine their rates and revisions. 🔁
🚨 This may be a revision day for Predictions ~ the Yield is declining fast📉
🔷 Scenario #1 Predictions: first yield report @ 11:00🕚
The Yield increased by 0.047% to 4.066%. Next, we’ll examine the critical role the Mortgage-Backed Securities Gap plays today. (+ or – .01%) Will it be the Hero 🦸 or the Villain?
MBS Hero Scenario: If lenders decrease the gap by 0.024%(the increase from yesterday), plus the Yield at 4.066%, mortgage rates will be 6.29%. The yield dipped significantly yesterday, and the MBS gap increased because the prices remained unchanged, creating a larger gap. Today, I think we’ll see the reverse. If the Fed desk decides to compress the gap further (0.034%), the mortgage rate could be 6.28%.
🟦 Neutral: If the MBS stays the same as yesterday at 2.251%, plus today’s Yield of 4.066% would put mortgage rates at 6.32%.
🦹 MBS Villain Scenario: The MBS prices are down slightly from yesterday. The gap could decrease to 0.014% vs. the 0.024%, putting mortgage rates at 6.30%.
🔶 Scenario #2 Predictions: Second Yield Update Report @ 12:30 🕛
I’m 👀 Watching trends between 11:00 and 1:00 for stabilization or Revision regarding MBS Prices and the bond yield. This is why it’s essential to know Lenderour Lender updates their rate sheets, how frequently they will post them, and under what circumstances they will change their rate price sheet during a specific window. 🚨 Don’t see a revision today, the markets are stable.
♦️ Scenario #3 Revision ⤵️: Lender Revision around 3:30 🕞
If the bond market cools off or spikes, you could see a Lender rate revision based on the yield trends after the original rate price sheet was released. 🚨 Don’t see a revision today, the markets are stable.
Today’s Prediction:
📅 This article is regularly updated to reflect the latest market trends and mortgage data in Metro Detroit. 🔖 Bookmark it to stay informed!
🔖Import Article to Bookmark⤵️
👈 Updated with detailed breaking news and trends 🧠💥Due to shifting mortgage markets, tariff wars, and bond market chaos, I’m no longer waiting for the weekend to update. 📊 You’ll find fresh graphs, clear trends, and smart insights on where the economy and mortgage rates are heading. 📉📈
The Fed can no longer stay proactive—they’re now in reactive mode, which changes everything from your rate watch to home buying plans. ⚠️🏠
🕐 Afternoon Update: Where Did Mortgage Rates Land? 9-12-2025 @ 1:00 🕐
Scroll for Rates for the past week.
📉 Mortgage Rates decreased Today ~ WHY?
🏦 Wall Street is still reacting to the job market data overall. Rates are expected to find balance before the start of next week, following anticipation from Fed Chair Powell regarding an interest rate cut on September 16th and 17th. We close out Friday with investors combing through all the data. For more details on the economy, all the graphs, visit Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save.💲
📉 MBS Gap Trends: Why MBS Prices Are Being Engineered by the Fed Desk & GSEs
1️⃣ Gap Control 🎚️ — The Fed Desk actively engineers the spread (gap) between Treasury yields and mortgage rates. By widening or compressing it, they offset bond market moves.
2️⃣ Artificial Stability 🏦 — When yields rise, they compress the gap so rates don’t spike too high. When yields fall, they expand the gap to keep rates from dropping too far. This creates an engineered illusion of “stable” mortgage rates. Today we had both, due to the increase in MBS prices up .048% over yesterday.
3️⃣ Policy Pressure 📊 — The GSEs (Fannie & Freddie) coordinate with the Desk, ensuring MBS prices align with policy goals — not just market supply and demand.
📉 To put that in perspective: we’ve gone from a market where spreads were holding closer to historical norms, to one where the gap is being forced tighter and tighter. This isn’t natural market behavior — it’s policy-driven compression at work.
MBS Gap Trends
🧩 Who’s Really Compressing the Gap
🔶 Retail lenders don’t have the balance sheet or hedging power to absorb yield shocks or MBS rallies. They’re rate takers, not rate makers—unless they’re portfolio lending, which is rare and usually flagged.
🔷 Banks using the Fed’s underwriting system (think Desktop Underwriter or Loan Prospector) are pricing off agency guidelines. They’re not setting rates—they’re executing.
♦️GLS (Government Liquidity Systems)—whether that’s GSEs like Fannie/Freddie or Fed desk operations—are the only entities with the capital, mandate, and tools to compress the rate/yield gap. They can:
🧠 The giveaway here
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View More
📌 Update from MDN’s: It’s a diffecult time for the bond market and mortgage rates. The rules have already changed in a big way to accomodate the new wild card 🃏 presented by tariff policies.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! 📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so that you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. ✨Would you prefer an in-person meeting 🗓️ or a quick phone call at 248-343-2459 📞 instead? No problem! Let’s set up a time that fits your schedule.
Contact me with any Questions
Schedule an Appointment ~ Call | or Zoom Consultation Here
⌛What My Crystal Ball 🔮 Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Let’s be real—all the tools we once used to measure the economy and mortgage rates are useless now. 🛠️🚫. Economists predicted mortgage rates would hit 6.62% in Q1 ending March 31; it was close. March closed out rates at 6.74%. Mortgage Rates spiked in April, reaching a high of 7.09%. 📈 Economist revised mortgage rate predictions, and the average did increase slightly. The Mortgage Bank Association, if I’m looking at averages, is the closest. Now, will it hold? 🤔
💥 The Treasury’s Dirty Little Secret is OUT!
For decades, the U.S. Treasury quietly relied on foreign nations to bankroll our debt, with China and Japan footing the bill. Still, that cozy setup is falling apart thanks to escalating trade wars and ballooning deficits Whether you love or hate President Trump, his aggressive tactics pulled back the curtain and exposed just how fragile our financial system is The result The bond market is on edge, with fewer willing buyers and a government scrambling to stay afloat. ⚠️💣
💠Furthermore, as the Fed pulls back and global buyers disappear, the question becomes: Who will buy all our debt bonds? GDP contracted, and now tariffs are part of our economy; I’m afraid to see what May’s report will reveal. This is scary stuff. Perhaps the government should reconsider its approach to buying and selling government bonds.
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