Today’s Mortgage Rates: Alert๐Ÿ“ข

Today’s Mortgage Rates: Let’s crack the codeย ๐Ÿ”ข for Metro Detroit and take control of your home financing!ย ๐Ÿ’ธDon’t just follow the market ~ Master learning how to predict mortgage rates!ย  ๐ŸŽ“

Todays Mortgage Rates: Crack the Code and Save | Metro Detroit Home Experts

๐Ÿ“† Today’s Mortgage Rates ~

ย Track the Why, not the what: September 10, 2025ย 

ย Mortgage rates aren’t just aboutย the daily numberย that pops up.ย It’s more about theย WHY that number moves. ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ’กUnderstanding the economic forces, Fed policy shifts, and bond market trends behind rate changes helps you make smarter, more confident decisions.ย Each week, I break down the “WHY” behind the moves. It goes far beyond the headlines, revealing the deeper story of what drivesย rates and affects your monthly payment. ๐Ÿง ๐Ÿ’ฒ

This week, we’ll decode the latest market twists. I’ll cover the Fed’s next move, and whether Wall Street’s expectations are realistic โ€” all inside “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code: Know the Why ๐Ÿ’ก and Save.” ย I’ll lay out all the graphs, trends, and what’s driving mortgage rates today and into next week.ย ๐Ÿ‘€ I’m watching the trends, so you don’t have to! ๐Ÿ‘

๐Ÿšจย  Morning Predictions ~ย All ๐Ÿ‘€ Are on the Bond Market ~ย 9-10-2025ย 

ย ย Good Morning, Metro Detroit! ๐ŸŒฉ๏ธ I’m tracking early movements ๐Ÿ‘€ through 1:00 pm, as this is critical when lenders typically finalize rate sheet revisions. That’s how you know when to lock your rate on the dip ๐Ÿ“‰, not the spike.ย ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿšจ Your Mortgage Rate: Why!ย ย 

 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Bond Yield increased ~ Here’s Your Why: 

๐Ÿšจ I’m shocked this is the second month in a row the PPI inflation report didn’t send the bond market into CHAOS! The 10-year Treasury has decreased slightly as the yield is trying to find a balance between job reports and Inflation reports. The job reports caused the yield to plummet last week. This week will be dealing with inflation reports, which can cause chaos in the bond market. This is the second straight month of labor-market weakness. Here are the key takeaways from the jobs report. This morning, the Department of Labor revised its job growth, down by 911,000 through March, signaling the economy is on a shakier footing than realized. Fear is in the air, causing the yield to increase today. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

The Fed desk, starting in August, has been compressing the MBS gap. The MBS gap started at 2.400% on 8-1 and as of yesterday, it is down to 2.262%, that’s a drop of .138%. Between the yield plummeting and the MBS gap compressions, mortgage rates fell from 6.63% to 6.28% as of yesterday. That’s a .35% drop in 5 weeks. ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽŠ๐Ÿฅณ

Recession is front and center again. This time, the concern is over the 10-year Treasury yield plummeting 0.216% since September 2. 

๐Ÿฅณ The good news for buyers with a secured job is that mortgage rates have declined from 6.53% to 6.29%. That’s a .25% drop in 5 days. 

 

โš ๏ธ The Economy’s Effect on Mortgage Rates: 

๐Ÿงจ 1. Tariffs Are Driving Prices Up
  • The average effective tariff rate has surged to 17.4%, the highest since 1935.
  • Tariffs on metals, electronics, and imported components are inflating input costs across sectors.
  • Manufacturers report 24% price hikes just to offset tariff costsโ€”no margin gain, just survival.
  • Consumer passthrough is real: 61โ€“80% of tariff costs are hitting household budgets. 
  •  Trump’s tariffs are coming home to Roost: 4 ripple effects you cannot ignore. 

โ€œMade in the USA has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components.โ€ โ€” ISM survey respondent

๐Ÿญ 2. Manufacturing Is Contracting
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for six straight months, signaling contraction.
  • August’s PMI was 48.7, still in shrink mode despite a slight uptick in new orders.
  • Firms are freezing hiring and capital spending due to tariff-driven uncertainty.
  • Manufacturing jobs are down 78,000 year-to-date, with 12,000 lost in August alone.

โ€œWe are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, hiring is frozen.โ€

๐Ÿ‘ทโ€โ™€๏ธ 3. The Labor Market Is Wobbling
  • August added just 22,000 jobs, far below forecasts. 
  • Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, and long-term joblessness rose by 385,000 over the year. June’s job data was revised downโ€”13,000 jobs lost, not gained.
  • Employers are hiring 29,000/month on average (Juneโ€“August), down from 168,000/month in 2024.
 

 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 4. Inflation Watch:

๐Ÿ’ก The Producer Price Index (PPI) report drops this Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. ๐Ÿ“Š The data has been skewed by tariffs, not demand, which makes this report critical. โš–๏ธ Powell will use it to decide how deep September’s rate cut goes. ๐Ÿ”Depending on how Wall Street reads the cards, the yield could skyrocket. ๐Ÿš€
 
๐Ÿ›๏ธ 5. Wall Street: 
Is a rate cut coming in September? We definitely have a wobble now in the job marketโ€”first back-to-back decline in jobs since December 2024 and January 2025. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, and bond and securities buying has increased. 
 
๐Ÿšข 6. Inflation Reports This week: 

๐Ÿ“‰ PPI Cools Off, but the Bond Market Shrugs: What It Means for Mortgage Rates

๐Ÿ” Quick Recap of Todayโ€™s Data
  • Producer Price Index (PPI):ย Year-over-Year (YoY): Down 0.05% ~ย Month-over-Month (MoM): From +0.7% to -0.1% ~ย Core PPI (excludes food & energy):YoY: Down 0.8% ~ย MoM: From +0.08% to -0.1%.ย 

Todayโ€™s PPI report shows cooling producer costs, which should be a positive sign for inflation trends. But despite the soft numbers, Wall Street and the bond market didnโ€™t budge. The 10-year yield is flat, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) pricing is steady, and mortgage rates arenโ€™t moving.


๐Ÿฆ What This Means for the Economy

Falling PPI suggests that inflation pressure is easing at the production level. If this trend continues, it gives the Federal Reserve more breathing room to consider cuts in the months ahead. However, the bond market is clearly taking a โ€œwait-and-seeโ€ approach, especially with next weekโ€™s Fed meeting on the calendar.

This lack of reaction tells us:

  • Investors already priced in cooling inflation.
  • Markets are focused on CPI data, jobs numbers, and Fed guidance rather than a single PPI print.
  • Bond traders are cautious about making moves before Powell speaks next week.

๐Ÿก Mortgage Rate Outlook

For now, mortgage rates are holding steady. Hereโ€™s what to watch:

  • If the Fed signals a rate cut path next week, we could see yields and mortgage rates drift lower. If Powell doubles down on a โ€œhigher for longerโ€ message, rates may stay locked where they are for now.
  • The MBS gap remains tight, which limits lender flexibility to drop rates even when yields fall slightly.

Bottom line: Todayโ€™s PPI report is good news for inflation, but not enough to shake markets or give homebuyers immediate relief.


๐Ÿ“… Next Week: Big Decisions Ahead

The Federal Reserve meets next week, and this is the moment that will set the tone for fall rates. If youโ€™re in the market to buy or refinance, this is a key time to watch the bond market and lock timing closely.

Knowledge unlocks your next step. Stay tuned for next weekโ€™s Fed coverage and real-time updates on what it means for your home financing strategy.

Why This Matters for Buyers and Sellers

๐Ÿก For Buyers:
Today’s drop to 6.29% โ€” with rates likely sliding a bit lower today โ€” means real savings if you’re ready to act. However, remember that this dip is driven byย Fed Desk compression and shaky market confidence,ย rather than genuine stability. It appears that mortgage rates reached the White House’s goal of 6.5% by the end of August.ย 

๐ŸŽฏ For Sellers:
The stable yield, paired with MBS gap compression, is giving buyers some breathing room. Mortgage rates fell to 6.29% todayย and are expected to remain at this level today, even if there’s a slight gap correction. That means more buyers can afford to stay in the game, keeping demand alive and supporting stronger offers if you’re listing now.

๐Ÿ’ก Bottom Line:

Mortgage rates don’t just “happen.” They follow the bond market. When yields climb, it’s a signal of inflation fears, heavy government borrowing, or weaker global demandโ€”knowingย that “WHY” helps you make confident, fact-driven decisions โ€” instead of guessing when it comes to important decisions like a mortgage.

Understanding how these reports impact the market gives you the power to act before rates change. The goal is protecting your bottom line, whether you’re buying or selling. ย Now more than ever, it will be essential to follow the trends.ย Allย the latest economicย graphs are in the blog post, “Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save.”

Yield Update at 10:00 ๐Ÿ•™ย for 9-10-2025

ย Theย 10-Year Treasury Yield is your base.ย Will there be a spike or Dip at 10:30? ๐Ÿ•ฅ

The 10-year Treasury yield is where it all begins. The yield number sets the tone for mortgage rates. I’ll follow the yield to determine Today’s prediction.ย Today’s yield rateย decreased slightly and is stable.ย ย 

๐Ÿงฉ This pattern signals one thing:

The market is pausing โ€” neither rallying nor panicking. We’re in a holding pattern where MBS pricing, yields, and lender strategy are all balancing delicately.

๐Ÿ“ŒThis is where the Formula Starts โคต๏ธ
Scroll to see the 5-day Yield Rates
Two Mortgage Rate Day?ย 

๐Ÿคฏ Remember: Lenders may adjust mortgage rates up or down if the 10-year yield shifts by ยฑ0.020% until 1:00 PM. I’m watching ๐Ÿ‘€ to see if this spike holds or if we get a late-day correction lower.

Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices ~ย The Unsung Hero ๐Ÿฆธ or the Villain๐Ÿฆนย 

The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%.ย Currently, theย averageย range has plummeted to under 2.300% from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.

๐Ÿ“Œ Today’sย MBSย price Gap: will they be our Hero ๐Ÿฆธ or Villain ๐Ÿฆน

Mortgage Daily Newsย reports that MBS pricing is moderately strongerย and couldย impact mortgage rates lower today.ย Theย Fed Security desk has been workingย behind the scenes all month, seemingly disregarding the pricing rules. The Fed desk isย compressingย the gap to keep mortgage rates lower after the yield spikes. MBS pricing is not following the standard rules due to market volatility. Today, the correction may be minimal.ย 

  • ๐Ÿฆธย Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. That puts downward pressure on mortgage rates.โœ… Result: Lenders can offer lower interest rates because the value of the mortgage bond (the MBS) is stronger. It’s a win for buyers, refinancers, and anyone seeking to secure a better deal.
  • ๐ŸฆนVillain Mode:

    Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creatingย upward pressure on mortgage rates.โŒย Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, ๐Ÿš€ the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie ๐Ÿฆ have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical.ย 

๐Ÿ”Always follow theย WHY!๐Ÿš€

Early Mortgage Rate Prediction graph Below โคต๏ธ

๐Ÿ‘‰ Sellers take note: These shifts affect your buyers’ loan approvals, payments, and urgency. Stay informed to time your listing right. ๐ŸกMarkets move fast, so being ahead of the curve can help you protect your equity and plan smarter. ๐Ÿ’ผ๐Ÿ“†ย 

๐Ÿ’กย Pro Tip: If you plan toย make an offer on a house in Metro Detroit, it’s essential to understand how these economic shocks impact the mortgage market. Understanding trendsย andย how to predict them will give you aย serious edge when negotiating. Have aย planย in placeย to know before you lock inย your rate.ย ๐Ÿ”ฎ Stay tuned for this afternoon’s update at the bottom of the article: What My Crystal Ball Is Telling Me About Today’s Mortgage Rates.โคต๏ธ

Important ๐Ÿ“ข Know Your Lender’s ๐Ÿฆ Policy on Rate Revisions ~ Morning vs Afternoonย 

โš ๏ธ Before locking your rate, alwaysย understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember, yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing theย Lender’s timelineย before locking your rate isย crucial to save. ๐Ÿ”

๐Ÿ“Šย Mortgage Daily Newsย article on the importance ofย understandingย why lendersย adjustย mortgage rates midday. ๐Ÿ’ฅKnow your Lender’s ๐Ÿฆ protocol for rate changes. ๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ’กย Do you offerย rate revisionsย if the bond market shiftsย lower in the afternoon? โ“Know theย WHYย andย save.๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿ’ฒ

๐Ÿ”ฎ Todayโ€™s Mortgage Rate Prediction:ย 9-10-2025ย  ~ Mortgage rates will be lower today ๐Ÿฅณ๐Ÿ•šย 

This blog post will update the latest bond yield changes up to Noon. Mortgage Daily News reports the first mortgage rate base between 12:30 and 1:00, and Lender revision updates by 3:30. ๐Ÿ’ฅThe examples below show why you need to knowย how your Lenderย will handleย mortgage rate shiftsย andย what timeย they determine their rates and revisions. ๐Ÿ”

๐Ÿ”ท Scenario #1 Predictions: first yield report @ Noon ๐Ÿ•›ย 

The yield decreased by only 0.006% to 4.059%.ย Next, we’ll examine the critical role the Mortgage-Backed Securities Gapย plays today.ย (+ or โ€“ .01%) Will it be theย Heroย ๐Ÿฆธ or theย Villain?ย 

MBS Hero Scenario:ย If lendersย decreaseย the gap byย 0.010%, plus the Yield at 4.059%,ย mortgage rates will be 6.28%.ย ย 

๐ŸŸฆ Neutral:ย If the MBS stays the same as yesterday at 2.227%, plusย today’s yield of 4.059% would put mortgage rates at 6.29%.ย 

๐Ÿฆน MBS Villain Scenario:ย If the Feds decided on a correction today, then it would blow out my predictions anyway. For giggles, I’ll increase the gap by .010% putting rates at 6.30%.ย 

๐Ÿ”ถย  Scenario #2 Predictions: Second Yield Update Report @ 12:30 ๐Ÿ•›ย 

I’m ๐Ÿ‘€ Watching trends between 11:00 and 1:00 for stabilization orย Revision regarding MBS Prices and the bond yield. This is whyย it’s essential to know Lenderour Lender updates their rate sheets, how frequently they will post them, and under what circumstancesย they willย change their rate price sheetย during a specificย window. ๐Ÿšจ I don’t see a revision today; the markets are stable.ย 

โ™ฆ๏ธ Scenario #3 Revision โคต๏ธ: Lenderย Revision around 3:30 ๐Ÿ•žย 

If the bond market cools off or spikes, you could see a Lender rate revision based on the yield trends after the original rate price sheet was released. ๐Ÿšจ Don’t foresee a revision today, the markets are stable.ย 

Today’s Prediction:ย 

๐Ÿ“… This article is regularly updated to reflect the latest market trends and mortgage data in Metro Detroit. ๐Ÿ”– Bookmark it to stay informed!
๐Ÿ”–Import Article to Bookmarkโคต๏ธ

๐Ÿ‘ˆ Updated with detailed breaking news and trendsย ๐Ÿง ๐Ÿ’ฅDue to shifting mortgage markets, tariff wars, and bond market chaos, I’m no longer waiting for the weekend to update. ๐Ÿ“Š You’ll find fresh graphs, clear trends, and smart insights on where the economy and mortgage rates are heading. ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“ˆ
The Fed can no longer stay proactiveโ€”they’re now in reactive mode, which changes everything from your rate watch toย home buying plans. โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ 

๐Ÿ• Afternoon Update: Where Did Mortgage Rates Land? 9-10-2025 @ 1:00 ๐Ÿ•

Scroll for Rates for the past week.ย 
ย ๐Ÿ“‰ Mortgage Rates Increased Today ~ย  WHY?

๐Ÿฆ Wall Street is reacting to the jobs revision, revealing there were 911,000 fewer jobs in the year ending in March. There is definitely a wobble in the jobs market for the second month in a row, and now yearly revisions. That will set the Fed up for an interest rate cut on September 16th and 17th. For more details on the economy,ย  all the graphs, visit Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save.๐Ÿ’ฒ

๐Ÿ“‰ MBS Gap Trends: Why MBS Prices Are Being Engineered by the Fed Desk & GSEs

1๏ธโƒฃ Gap Control ๐ŸŽš๏ธ โ€” The Fed Desk actively engineers the spread (gap) between Treasury yields and mortgage rates. By widening or compressing it, they offset bond market moves.

2๏ธโƒฃ Artificial Stability ๐Ÿฆ โ€” When yields rise, they compress the gap so rates don’t spike too high. When yields fall, they expand the gap to keep rates from dropping too far. This creates an engineered illusion of “stable” mortgage rates. Today we had both, due to the increase in MBS prices up .048% over yesterday.ย 

3๏ธโƒฃ Policy Pressure ๐Ÿ“Š โ€” The GSEs (Fannie & Freddie) coordinate with the Desk, ensuring MBS prices align with policy goals โ€” not just market supply and demand.

๐Ÿ“‰ To put that in perspective: we’ve gone from a market where spreads were holding closer to historical norms, to one where the gap is being forced tighter and tighter. This isn’t natural market behavior โ€” it’s policy-driven compression at work.

MBS Gap Trends
MBS Daily Gap 9-10-2025 | Metro Detroit Home Experts

ย ๐Ÿงฉ Who’s Really Compressing the Gap

๐Ÿ”ถ Retail lenders don’t have the balance sheet or hedging power to absorb yield shocks or MBS rallies. They’re rate takers, not rate makersโ€”unless they’re portfolio lending, which is rare and usually flagged.

๐Ÿ”ทย Banks using the Fed’s underwriting system (think Desktop Underwriter or Loan Prospector) are pricing off agency guidelines. They’re not setting ratesโ€”they’re executing.

โ™ฆ๏ธGLS (Government Liquidity Systems)โ€”whether that’s GSEs like Fannie/Freddie or Fed desk operationsโ€”are the only entities with the capital, mandate, and tools to compress the rate/yield gap. They can:

๐Ÿง  The giveaway here

Normally,ย higher yields + lower MBS pricesย =ย wider gapย =ย higher rates. Currently, we have higher yields, falling MBS prices,ย and aย shrinking gap, whichย suggests thatย someone is intentionally compressing the spread to keep rates appearing “stable.”

Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily Newsโคต๏ธClick to View More

๐Ÿ“Œ Update from MDN’s: It’s a diffecult time for the bond market and mortgage rates. The rules have already changed in a big way to accomodate the new wild card ๐Ÿƒ presented by tariff policies.

๐Ÿก Letโ€™s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ”Ž
Letโ€™s Connect โคต๏ธ

Wow! ๐Ÿคฏ Thereโ€™s a lot to take in, but donโ€™t worryโ€”Iโ€™ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. ๐Ÿ”‘Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. ๐Ÿ’ต But it doesnโ€™t have to be complicated!ย ๐Ÿ“… Schedule a Zoom call with me, and weโ€™ll review the data step by step. Iโ€™ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so thatย you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. โœจWould you prefer an in-person meeting ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ or a quick phone callย at 248-343-2459 ๐Ÿ“ž instead? No problem! Letโ€™s set up a time that fits your schedule.

Pam Sawyer at Metro Detroit Home Experts - Team Tag it Sold
OR Send an Email๐Ÿ’ก๐ŸŽ“

โŒ›What My Crystal Ball ๐Ÿ”ฎ Tells Me About the Futureย Mortgage Market

Let’s be realโ€”all the tools we once used to measure the economy and mortgage rates are useless now. ๐Ÿ› ๏ธ๐Ÿšซ. Economists predicted mortgage rates would hit 6.62% in Q1 ending March 31; it was close. March closed out rates at 6.74%. Mortgage Ratesย spikedย in April, reaching a high of 7.09%. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Economist revised mortgage rate predictions, and the average did increase slightly. The Mortgage Bank Association, if I’m looking at averages, is the closest. Now, will it hold? ๐Ÿค”

July 2 New Projections for the Next year | Metro Detroit Home Experts

ย ย ๐Ÿ’ฅ The Treasury’s Dirty Little Secret is OUT!

For decades, the U.S. Treasury quietly relied on foreign nations to bankroll our debt, with China and Japan footing the bill. Still, thatย cozy setup is falling apart thanks to escalatingย trade wars and ballooning deficits ย Whether you love or hate President Trump, his aggressive tactics pulled back the curtain and exposed just how fragile our financial system isย  The result ย The bondย market is on edge, with fewer willing buyers and a government scrambling to stay afloat. โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ’ฃ

๐Ÿ’ Furthermore, as the Fed pulls back and global buyers disappear, the question becomes: Who will buy all our debt bonds? GDP contracted, and now tariffs are part of our economy; I’m afraid to see what May’s report will reveal. This is scary stuff. Perhaps the governmentย shouldย reconsiderย its approach toย buyingย and selling government bonds.ย 

More Help Is 1๏ธโƒฃ Click Awayโคต๏ธ

If you find this information useful, like and share it with your friends and family. ๐Ÿฅฐ๐Ÿ’ฏ
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The information contained, and the opinions expressed in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Metro Detroit Home Experts ~ Team Tag it Sold does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Metro Detroit Home Experts ~ Team Tag It Sold will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

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Today's Mortgage Rates: Slight Rate Drop Alert๐Ÿ“ข
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Today's Mortgage Rates: Slight Rate Drop Alert๐Ÿ“ข
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Today's Mortgage Rates for Metro Detroit: Find out what's impacting the change, up or down, and know where they are going next. Don't just follow the market, master it! ๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿก ๐Ÿ’ฒ
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