Today’s Mortgage Rates: Ticked UP Alert 📢
Updated: January 29, 2026 • 12:59 PM ET
Track the Why, not the what:🗓️ January 29, 2026
Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s driving the change isn’t just about the daily number that pops up. I’m going to break down and explain the WHY behind Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s Driving the Change in Metro Detroit! Learn the WHY the rate moves so you can spot trends before they shift. By understanding the bond market, the MBS gap, and the Fed’s hidden influence, you’ll know when to lock your rate on a dip—not a spike.
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Your WHY Starts with the Formula
The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years. It acts like a weather vane for long-term rates, including mortgage rates. When investors expect higher inflation or stronger economic growth, they demand higher returns. That pushes the 10-year yield up ⬆️, and mortgage rates usually rise with it.
When investors worry about a slowdown, a recession, or global trouble, they move money into safe U.S. Treasuries. That buying pushes the 10-year yield down ⬇️, and mortgage rates tend to fall. So when you hear about hot inflation, strong job numbers, or a tough-talking Federal Reserve, rates usually move higher 📈. But if you hear about weak data, recession fears, or market stress, rates often move lower 📉.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Your Base- Updated by 10:30 🕥
1-28-2026
The Yield Is Volatile
It’s a slow go in the bond market, and fortunately, it started to drift down until yesterday. 📉 The goal now is to set the yield at the January coupon rate of 4.173% and push the mortgage rate lower. It appears the news headlines triggered the bond market yesterday, and it remains stubbornly high.
Step #1: Why the Yield Spiked and Mortgage Rate with it📊
This week, U.S. Treasury yields jumped ⬆️, and mortgage rates moved up with them — not because of inflation, the Federal Reserve, or a sudden change in the economy. It happened because foreign countries sent the U.S. a message using money.
When countries 🌍 don’t like U.S. policy, they don’t make speeches; they sell U.S. bonds or stop buying them, which pushes bond prices down, yields up, and mortgage rates higher. That’s what followed new White House tariff threats tied to Greenland and a tougher stance toward several countries. Foreign investors didn’t dump everything; they sold just enough to move the market — a warning shot ⚠️, not a crash — signaling, “We don’t like these policies, and we own a lot of your debt.” By Wednesday, the White House said there would be no new tariffs, but the damage was done. The 10-year Treasury yield is still up about 0.10% ⬆️, and that’s keeping mortgage rates elevated.
Bottom line 🧭:
Mortgage rates didn’t rise because of inflation or the Fed. They rose because foreign investors pushed yields higher to send a political message — showing how fast global politics can show up in your mortgage quote.
Step #2: Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices Today – Updated by 11:30 🕦
🚨 The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%. Currently, the average range has plummeted from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.
📌 Today’s MBS Gap: Hero 🦸 or Villain 🦹
📰 Mortgage Daily News reports that MBS prices have remained the same and could have a minimal impact on Mortgage Rates today. 🚨 Due to the FHFA Fed Policies, they are using the MBS Gap balance mortgage rates. The UMBS prices stayed the same.
- 🦸 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. That puts downward pressure on mortgage rates.
- ⚖️Balanced: Today’s yield at 4.255% plus yesterday’s MBS Gap of 1.905% would equal the potential rate of 6.16%.
- 🦹Villain Mode:
Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, 🚀 the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie 🏦 have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical. I don’t foresee a Villain Scenario today.
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s Policy on Rate Revisions – Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember: yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the Lender’s timeline before locking your rate is crucial to saving. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of understanding why lenders adjust mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your Lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵
Today’s Actual Mortgage Rates: Updated by 1:00 🕐
Today’s Mortgage Rate: WHY Answered
Unfortunately, mortgage rates are not declining as quickly as they rose. Yesterday, you received another gift 🎁from the FHFA policy desk. The MBS gap was artificially compressed to offset the increase in yield. The bond market remains volatile.
Mortgage Rates 30 Day Trends
Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Gap
The real story behind the WHY mortgage rates are lower!
Why MBS Prices Are Being Compressed by the FHFA
📌 The MBS gap hasn’t been following the math consistently since August. 🧮 The FHFA Policy Desk is determining the outcome of where they want rates to land. Remember, the Federal Reserve doesn’t determine mortgage rates; instead, the 10-year Treasury yield (set by Treasury Department bond sales) and the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) gap, set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, do.
FHFA Policy Desk
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Capital Markets Desks
⬇️⬇️⬇️
MBS Market
(Pricing & Spreads)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Lenders
(Rate Sheets)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Borrowers
(Final Mortgage Rate)
Monthly Gap Stabilization Plan
The Fed desk is trying to narrow the MBS gap back to the 50-year average of 1.72%, or at least to 1.88%, as in February 2020, before the shutdown changed everything.
🧠 Why You Can’t Predict FHFA / GLS’s Gap Logic Anymore
1️⃣ The Gap Is No Longer Mathematical—It’s Tactical 
2️⃣ They’re Using the Gap as a Smokescreen 🎭
3️⃣ Wall Street’s emotional sabotage meets forensic clarity🧮
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View
Based on the FICO score, your down payment, location, purchase price and MORE!
What My Crystal Ball Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Based on months of prior bond auctions, we know Wall Street isn’t taking the bait. For investors to purchase bonds, they are demanding higher coupon rates. The Treasury needs to STOP🛑increasing the deficit; they are burning through cash. If we don’t get our spending in check and stop feeding the deficit, we won’t see a significant change in mortgage rates.
Next, we have a new problem: the White House is using tariffs as a weapon to get what it wants. The last fiasco, involving tariffs on countries that opposed the Greenland takeover, sent mortgage rates skyrocketing. WHY? Because countries hold Millions to Billions of our bond debt. When countries decide to sell bonds prematurely to get their message to the White House, their policies won’t be tolerated. That bond sell-off will cause the 10-year Treasury yield to spike, and mortgage rates will follow. The bond market is still volatile. If you understand the WHY, you can predict the next dip and save thousands over the lifetime of your loan.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before you even start searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen to give you a clear view of market insights so you can make confident, informed decisions about your next steps! ✅✨
More Help Is One Click Away⤵️
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