Today’s Mortgage Rates: Slight Rise Alert 📢
UPDATED: FEBRUARY 11, 2026 • 12:50 PM ET
TRACK THE WHY, NOT THE WHAT: 🗓️ 2-11-2026
Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s driving the change isn’t just about the daily number that pops up. I’m going to break down and explain the WHY behind Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s Driving the Change in Metro Detroit! Learn the WHY the rate moves so you can spot trends before they shift. By understanding the bond market, the MBS gap, and the Fed’s hidden influence, you’ll know when to lock your rate on a dip—not a spike.
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The Why Behind Today’s Mortgage Rates Starts with the formula
The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years. It acts like a weather vane for long-term rates, including mortgage rates. When investors expect higher inflation or stronger economic growth, they demand higher returns. That pushes the 10-year yield up ⬆️, and mortgage rates usually rise with it.
When investors worry about a slowdown, a recession, or global trouble, they move money into safe U.S. Treasuries. That buying pushes the 10-year yield down ⬇️, and mortgage rates tend to fall. So when you hear about hot inflation, strong job numbers, or a tough-talking Federal Reserve, rates usually move higher 📈. But if you hear about weak data, recession fears, or market stress, rates often move lower 📉.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Your Base- Updated by 10:30 🕥
The yield plummeted this morning.
The US bond market is suddenly flashing a warning sign about the economy. Today’s rise has everything to do with the 10-year Treasury bond auction tomorrow, 2-11-2026, details below.
Step 1: Why the Yield ticked up and Mortgage Rate with it📉
Today’s sharp rise in Treasury yields stems from three factors: markets are pricing in slower growth and higher interest rates, and Wall Street investors have a significant role in tomorrow’s bond auction. Even here, supply and demand affect the Yield.
1️⃣ Investors Won’t Buy Unless the Pot Is Sweetened
Wall Street is sending a clear message: “We’ll buy your debt — but only at a higher yield.” When recent auctions cleared at 4.173% and 4.175%, that became the new reference point. Buyers are demanding better compensation. To attract enough demand, yields must rise to meet that level. So the market edges higher ahead of the auction window.
2️⃣ Auctions, Not Headlines, Set the Real Yield Floor
Economic reports can move markets for a moment. But the auction sets the true floor. The Bureau of Labor Statistics can publish inflation or jobs data, and traders will react. Yet when real money shows up at auction, that’s where value is defined. For the last two months, the message has been consistent: Fair value = 4.17–4.18%.
3️⃣ Weaker Economic Data
Recent reports point to slowing momentum. Softer consumer spending and cooling labor indicators suggest demand is easing. When growth looks weaker, investors move toward safety. That means more buying of Treasuries. Increased demand pushes bond prices up and yields down. Even with softer data, the auction still confirms where buyers are willing to commit real capital—and lately, that level has remained in the 4.17–4.18% range.
The bond market is signaling caution. Slower data, along with debt, has investors pricing higher. The only reason mortgage rates are lower is that the FHFA policy desk is artificially compressing the MBS gap to offset the higher coupon yields.
Step #2: Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices Today – Updated by 11:30 🕦 Early Predictions slight Dip 📢
🚨 The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%. Currently, the average range has plummeted from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.
📌 Today’s MBS Gap: Hero 🦸 or Villain 🦹 with prediction
📰 Mortgage Daily News reports that MBS prices have moved down slightly and could have a minimal impact on Mortgage Rates today. 🚨 Due to the FHFA Fed Policies, they are using the MBS Gap to balance mortgage rates.
- 🦸 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. Today’s Math: If the MBS decreases by (-0.010) 1.954%, plus the yield at 4.180%, then the mortgage rate would land at 6.13%.
- ⚖️Balanced: Today’s Math: The Yield at 4.180% plus the same MBS Gap as yesterday at 1.963% would equal a mortgage rate of 6.14%
- 🦹Villain Mode: Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, 🚀 the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie 🏦 have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical. Today’s Math: The yield at 4.180% + the MBS gap increase of (+0.010) 1.974% would equal the prediction rate to 6.15%.
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s Policy on Rate Revisions – Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember: yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the Lender’s timeline before locking your rate is crucial to saving. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of understanding why lenders adjust mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your Lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵
Today’s Actual Mortgage Rates: Updated by 1:00 🕐
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Today’s Mortgage Rate: WHY Answered
Today, the math was applied, and rates rose as yields increased. The yield has been stable as it is set for tomorrow’s auction, and it appears the coupon investors demand to buy bonds and cover their risk.
Mortgage Rates Trends
Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Gap
The real story behind the WHY mortgage rates are lower!
Why the FHFA is compressing MBS Prices
📌 The MBS gap hasn’t been following the math consistently since August. 🧮 The FHFA Policy Desk is determining the outcome of where they want rates to land. Remember, the Federal Reserve doesn’t determine mortgage rates; instead, the 10-year Treasury yield (set by Treasury Department bond sales) and the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) gap, set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, do.
FHFA Policy Desk
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Capital Markets Desks
⬇️⬇️⬇️
MBS Market
(Pricing & Spreads)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Lenders
(Rate Sheets)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Borrowers
(Final Mortgage Rate)
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View.
Base Rate: adjustment not made for your FICO score, your down payment, location, purchase price and MORE!
What My Crystal Ball Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Based on months of prior bond auctions, we know Wall Street isn’t taking the bait. To purchase bonds, investors are demanding higher coupon rates. The Treasury needs to STOP🛑increasing the deficit; they are burning through cash. If we don’t get our spending in check and stop feeding the deficit, we won’t see a significant change in mortgage rates.
Next, we have a new problem: the White House is using tariffs as a weapon to get what it wants. The last fiasco, involving tariffs on countries that opposed the Greenland takeover, sent mortgage rates skyrocketing. WHY? Because countries hold Millions to Billions of our bond debt. When countries decide to sell bonds prematurely to get their message to the White House, their policies won’t be tolerated. That bond sell-off will cause the 10-year Treasury yield to spike, and mortgage rates will follow. The bond market is still volatile. If you understand the WHY, you can predict the next dip and save thousands over the lifetime of your loan.
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🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before you even start searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen to give you a clear view of market insights so you can make confident, informed decisions about your next steps! ✨If it’s easier, contact my cell at 📞248-343-2459.
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© 2017–2026 Pam Sawyer @ Metro Detroit Home Experts. All Rights Reserved.
The information contained and the opinions expressed in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Metro Detroit Home Experts ~ Pam Sawyer does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Metro Detroit Home Experts or Pam Sawyer will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
