Today’s Mortgage Rates: Let’s crack the code 🔢 for Metro Detroit and take control of your home financing! ☀️ Every morning, I track economic trends. By afternoon, I’ll post the actual numbers 🔢, share mortgage quote links 🔗, and reveal what my crystal ball 🔮 says about today’s rates. So you know exactly when to lock your rate and save! 💸Don’t just follow the market ~ Master learning how to predict mortgage rates! 🎓
📆 Today’s Mortgage Rates ~ June 17, 2025
Mortgage rates aren’t just about the numbers 📊—they’re about WHY those numbers change.💡 Understanding what’s driving rates up or down helps you make smarter, more informed decisions. I track economic trends, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and movements in the bond and securities markets. The goal is to uncover the real story behind the headlines. You’re not just getting a rate update anymore — you’re gaining insight into what’s really driving the economy.
📌Track the WHY, Not the WHAT! ⤵️
The mortgage market is getting wonky again. I’ll break down the important 🚨WHYs for The Week in “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code: Know the Why 💡 and Save“ 💲, including graphs. We’ll take the essential deep dive through the week and decode all the twists and turns. We’ll review the economy, Wall Street moves, the Fed’s decisions, and what’s next for mortgage rates. More importantly, your monthly payment for the coming week.🗓️I’m watching the trends closely 👀 so you don’t have to!
🚨 Morning Predictions ~ All 👀 Are on the Bond Market ~ 6-17-2025
Market Reports updated @Noon! Market is trending down 🕛
🌞 Good Morning, Metro Detroit! The bond market has cooled slightly this morning. Mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the news. Tracking early movements 👀 through 1:00 pm is critical when lenders typically finalize rate revisions. That’s how you know when to lock your rate on the downturn.
💥 Today’s Mortgage Rate WHY!
👿 Looks like the bond market is still throwing a tantrum.
Despite no objective economic justification, the 10-year yield spiked yesterday—driven more by market anxiety than solid data. This morning, it’s picking up right where it left off: elevated, but stable for now. That said, the bond market can turn on a dime.
I’ll be tracking it closely by the hour. Depending on how MBS prices respond, lenders could issue multiple rate reprices today, in either direction. Stay tuned—I’ll update you if anything shifts that could impact your rate.
💡 The Bottom Line
If the government doesn’t stop feeding the deficit, everything will cost more — from cars 🚗 to homes 🏠 to your credit card APR 💳.📈 Government spending is the real issue — to fund the deficit, they sell bonds. However, the Treasury must offer a much higher yield because investors are wary. That high yield means more interest to pay, which creates more debt, forcing them to…👉 Sell even more bonds — at even higher yields. See the circle of the self-inflicted loop dragging rates — and the economy — in the wrong direction. ⚠️ Want to see all the economic graphs and learn how they affect your future mortgage rate %? Visit: “🔍 Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and ‘Save”
📢 Your Formula for Early Mortgage Rate Predictions ~ 6-17-2025
📌 10-Year Treasury Yield: Your Mortgage Rate Base will Skyrocket today 📈
The 10-year Treasury yield is where it all begins. The yield number sets the tone for mortgage rates. So far this morning, the bond yield has remained stable. Let’s hope 🤞 today is not like yesterday, I blinked and the yield spiked by .034% causing mortgage rate to increase to 6.91%.
🧠 Two Forces Drive the Bond Market
1. The Long End of the Curve (10-Year Treasury) ~ This is where mortgage rates take their cues. The deficit impacts how the Treasury raises money by selling bonds to pay debt. That’s why economists have predicted mortgage rates will stay between 6.5% and 7%. Due to spending, the bond market won’t go down easily.
2. The Front End of the Curve (Short-Term)
This is based on the Fed’s interest rate policy. The market is priced in two rate cuts for this year, and now we may see an adjustment to one. The Fed does this to fight or slow inflation and stabilize the economy. Know the difference between Mortgage rates and interest rates.
📌This is where the Formula Starts ⤵️
Scroll to see the 5-Day Yield Rates
🚨 Revision at 1:30 🕜
Two Mortgage Rate Day?
🤯 Remember: Lenders may adjust mortgage rates up or down if the 10-year yield shifts by ±0.020% until 1:00 PM I’m watching 👀to see if this spike holds, or if we get a late-day correction lower.
Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices ~ The Unsung Hero 🏆or Silent Killer
The second piece to determining mortgage rates is the all-important 💥 Mortgage-backed Securities. Historically, the past 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates hovers around 1.72%. Right now? We’re still well above that. The average for the past few months has been around 2.55%.
Why does that matter? Lenders use that spread to price mortgage rates. Fewer home sales create fewer mortgages, which means fewer mortgage-backed securities hit the market. Less supply equals higher risk premiums, which means higher mortgage rates. So, yes, fewer homes sold feed into higher mortgage rates. Mortgage Applications decline to their highest level since February.
📌 Today’s MBS prices: will they be our Hero 🏆 or Villain 🦹
MBS Prices are up by by only .02%, which could have a minimal impact on mortgage rates.
- 🏆 Hero Mode: Rates come down faster than expected.
- 🦹Villain Mode: Lenders hold back or raise rates, even if the 10-year yield looks good.
🔍Always follow the WHY!🚀
Early Mortgage Rate Prediction graph Below ⤵️
👉 Sellers take note: These shifts affect your buyers’ loan approvals, payments, and urgency. Stay informed to time your listing right. 🏡Markets move fast, so being ahead of the curve can help you protect your equity and plan smarter. 💼📆
💡 Pro Tip: If you plan to make an offer on a house in Metro Detroit, it’s essential to understand how these economic shocks impact the mortgage market. Knowing the trends and how to predict will give you a serious edge when negotiating. Have a plan in place to know before you lock in your rate. 🔮 Stay tuned for this afternoon’s update at the bottom of the article: What My Crystal Ball Is Telling Me About Today’s Mortgage Rates.⤵️
mportant 📢 Know Your Lender’s 🏦 Policy on Rate Revisions ~ Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember, the Yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the lender’s timeline before locking your rate is critical if you want to save. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of knowing why lenders raise or lower mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁
💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵💲
🔮 Today’s Mortgage Rate Prediction ~ 6-17-2025
So far this morning, the 10-year treasury yield has declined slightly since Friday, and mortgage rates will follow. We are watching for possible afternoon bond sell-offs 👀 if rates shift at 1:00. This blog post will update the latest bond yield by 12:30ish and lender updates by 3:30. 💥The below examples are why you need to know how your lender will handle mortgage rate shifts and what time they determine their rates.
🔷 Scenario #1 first yield report:
The 10-year bond yield is staying the same as yesterday, 4.434%. MBS could play a role today and help lower mortgage rates slightly. (+ or – .01%) Early Prediction: 6.89% to 6.91%.
🚨🔶 Scenario #2 yield could be revised based on market shifts
👀 Watching trends between 10:30 and 1:30 for stabilization or revision. This is why it’s important to know when your lender pulls their rate sheets, how many times a day they will post it, and under what circumstances they will change their rate price sheet during what window. 🕛 The bond yield is trending down at noon to 4.415%, down .019%. 🚨This will change the original prediction to 6.88%. Let’s see if lenders will shift their rate sheets lower. 📉
🚨♦️ Scenario #3 Revision ⤵️: Revision around 3:00
If the bond market cools off or spikes, you could see a Lender rate revision based on the yield trends after the original rate price sheet was released.
🚨 Today’s Prediction ~ MBS Gap will play a role today
🚨 Lenders revised rates lower due to yield and MBS Price Gap Improvements
🔖Import Article to Bookmark⤵️
👈 Updated with detailed breaking news and trends 🧠💥Due to shifting mortgage markets, tariff wars, and bond market chaos, I’m no longer waiting for the weekend to update. 📊 You’ll find fresh graphs, clear trends, and smart insights on where the economy and mortgage rates are heading. 📉📈
The Fed can no longer stay proactive—they’re now in reactive mode, which changes everything from your rate watch to home buying plans. ⚠️🏠
🕐 Afternoon Update: Where Did Mortgage Rates Land? 6-16-2025 ~ 🕝2:30 Update ~ The bond Market is having a tantrum!
⏳ Your Afternoon Why:
- Seeing lenders did a rate revision to mortgage rates, there may not be a second revision even though the yield is still trending up at 2:00. 😱 💥A second rate revision will be released at 3:30.
- What’s causing the spike? 📈 First, lenders waited for the rates sheet to protect themselves from losses. So they used the threshold system because the bond yield kept rising. Some corporate stats also triggered the upward swing in the yield.
🤔 Who’s Pulling the Strings Behind Mortgage Rates When the bond yield spikes?
🏆 MBS Price Gap has been our hero this week keeping mortgage rates lower even though the 10-year treasury yield spiked. 📈 Who make those decisions?
🔹 It’s often the Federal Reserve, especially the New York Fed Desk. Even when they’re not doing Quantitative Easing (QE), they’re active behind the scenes. They rebalance portfolios, roll over maturing securities, monitor the increase in demand for mortgages and reinvest principal payments. 💼 It’s done behind the scenes at their discretion.
These quiet moves help stabilize spreads and prevent sudden mortgage rate spikes. You won’t see it in headlines, but it plays a huge role. 💡♦️ The Treasury creates the pressure (by issuing more bonds). 🔷 The Fed is the only one who can relieve it (by influencing rates or supporting MBS demand). Neither sets the MBS gap directly, but the Fed can nudge it lower through policy or buying signals.
Mortgage Rate Trends Over the Last 5 Months
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View More
📌 Update from MDN’s: It’s a diffecult time for the bond market and mortgage rates. The rules have already changed in a big way to accomodate the new wild card 🃏 presented by tariff policies.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! 📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so that you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. ✨Would you prefer an in-person meeting 🗓️ or a quick phone call at 248-343-2459 📞 instead? No problem! Let’s set up a time that fits your schedule.
Contact me with any Questions
Schedule an Appointment ~ Call | or Zoom Consultation Here
⌛What My Crystal Ball 🔮 Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Let’s be real—all the tools we once used to measure the economy and mortgage rates are useless now. 🛠️🚫. Economists predicted mortgage rates would hit 6.62% in Q1 ending March 31; it was close. March closed out rates at 6.74%. Mortgage Rates spiked in April, reaching a high of 7.09%. 📈 Unless something drastically changes, economists will need to revise their mortgage rate projections again. Since April, the trends have stayed closer in the 6.85% to 6.99% range with an occasional spike up to 7.8%. 👿
❓ Why are The Feds and Wall Street on Edge?
👉 First, understand how tariffs can affect the 10-year Treasury bond and Mortgage-backed Securities by checking out “Why Mortgage Rates and the Bond Market Are at Risk: Trade War Fallout“ for important details.
💠Secondly, domestic confidence is shaky, sinking to its lowest level since May 2020. Personal income is down, and spending was up, go figure. Regarding inflation, March’s and April’s numbers were excellent news, 🎉 But it no longer matters because the Fed 🏦 now needs to measure the economy with a new stick. 📏Buckle up! . 🎢
📌 WHY?
Because the old rules no longer apply. Tariffs have rewritten the script, and the economy is now measured against a new backdrop. Whether you think tariffs are good or bad, this isn’t political — it’s about the numbers and how they impact your mortgage rate and monthly payment. 📈 I spent the weekend doing a deep dive 🤿 into what’s behind the bond market chaos and why it’s sending rates higher. We’re now dealing with new economic measurements — inflation pressure, hedge fund shakeups, and global investor doubt. 😬
💥 MBS in the Crosshairs: Securities at Risk
The mortgage market’s foundation is shaking, and investors are watching closely.
Trump’s push to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has directly put Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) in the crosshairs. 😬
📉 These securities have long been seen as safe, 🛟 government-backed investments. That backing gives buyers confidence and keeps mortgage rates stable. But if that safety net disappears,🧨Investors could pull their money, demand higher returns, and send mortgage rates through the roof.
📌 We’ve seen this before.
When Mortgage-backed Securities were private, rates averaged 8.08% in 2000. The average mortgage rate was 6.57% in 2002. From 2003 to 2005, the average was 5.90% and rose to the mid-6 % range from 2006 to 2008. It’s funny, 😂 I was working on the article and Bank Rate decided to post their average 30-year Mortgage Rates, great timing! ⏳
Keep in mind the “crash of 08”, investors were burned badly 🔥 when they realized the mortgages they purchased were junk loans, and the market tanked.📉 That’s why a bipartisan Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Bill and created the FHFA as an independent Federal Agency. Since the 2008 crisis, both Fannie and Freddie have been in a conservatorship, meaning the FHFA has kept tight control over them to protect the mortgage market. There would be several legal and financial hurdles that the White House would need to jump through to privatize Freddie and Fannie. For now, it’s causing huge disruption on the bond market ~ Again!
💥 The Treasury’s Dirty Little Secret is OUT!
For decades, the U.S. Treasury quietly relied on foreign nations to bankroll our debt, with China and Japan footing the bill But that cozy setup is falling apart thanks to escalating trade wars and ballooning deficits Whether you love or hate President Trump, his aggressive tactics pulled back the curtain and exposed just how fragile our financial system is The result The bond market is on edge, with fewer willing buyers and a government scrambling to stay afloat. ⚠️💣
💠Furthermore, as the Fed pulls back and global buyers disappear, the question becomes: Who will buy all our debt bonds) GDP contracted, and now tariffs are part of our economy; I’m afraid to see what May’s report will reveal. This is scary stuff. Maybe the government needs to rethink how it buys and sells government bonds.
🎯 Bottom Line:
We’ve entered a new economic phase where the old rules no longer apply. The Fed 🏦 may be unable to delay a pivot much longer. Inflation is no longer the only metric. Between the tariffs and “The Big Beautiful Bill“, the bond market is the canary in the coal mine, and it’s gasping. 🐤
🗓️ Important Date to Track ~ They will impact your Rate.🎢
For future predictions and to answer this week’s WHY 🔮, visit “Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code, Know the Why 💡and Save 💲“. All the economic trends from Trading Economics will be displayed. 📈📉 Not only will it help you understand mortgage rate trends, and it will also give you key insights into the economy. 🙌To stay up to date, request our newsletter.
Dates to Watch: They could immediately affect mortgage rates. ⤵️
- Every Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week are made.
- Jobs Report: June 6th (First Friday of the Month) 🔥
- CPI Inflation Report: May 13th
- PPI Inflation Report: May 15th
- The Fed Meeting: June 17th and 18th (This meeting will be necessary to evaluate the economy moving forward).
- PCE Inflation Report: May 30th (Fed preferred measuring stick) 🔥
- Trade Deficit: June 5th
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: May 16th
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