Today’s Mortgage Rates: Slight Dip Alert 📢
Updated: February 5, 2026 • 12:59 PM ET
Track the Why, not the what:🗓️ February 5, 2026
Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s driving the change isn’t just about the daily number that pops up. I’m going to break down and explain the WHY behind Today’s Mortgage Rates: What’s Driving the Change in Metro Detroit! Learn the WHY the rate moves so you can spot trends before they shift. By understanding the bond market, the MBS gap, and the Fed’s hidden influence, you’ll know when to lock your rate on a dip—not a spike.
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Your WHY Starts with the Formula
The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years. It acts like a weather vane for long-term rates, including mortgage rates. When investors expect higher inflation or stronger economic growth, they demand higher returns. That pushes the 10-year yield up ⬆️, and mortgage rates usually rise with it.
When investors worry about a slowdown, a recession, or global trouble, they move money into safe U.S. Treasuries. That buying pushes the 10-year yield down ⬇️, and mortgage rates tend to fall. So when you hear about hot inflation, strong job numbers, or a tough-talking Federal Reserve, rates usually move higher 📈. But if you hear about weak data, recession fears, or market stress, rates often move lower 📉.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Your Base- Updated by 10:30 🕥
2-5-2026
The Yield drifted lower Today.
It appears the 10-year Treasury yield now has a new ceiling. 📈 The goal is to have the Yield start its drift back down to the January auction coupon rate of 4.173% and push the mortgage rate lower. This is not investor panic; it is a warning to the White House. Read more below. ⤵️ Today, the mortgage rate will probably dip slightly due to the Yield drifting lower.
Step #1: Why the Yield Spiked and Mortgage Rate with it📊
Today’s dip may be a fluke, with Wall Street shifting to the safety of the bond market. The shift started after the initial job report showed the highest job losses since 2009. I will wait and see if I need to update the WHY tomorrow. It started a few weeks ago and remains relevant today. The U.S. Treasury yields jumped ⬆️, and mortgage rates moved up with them — not because of inflation, the Federal Reserve, or a sudden change in the economy. It happened because foreign countries sent the U.S. a message using money.
When countries 🌍 don’t like U.S. policy, they don’t make speeches; they sell U.S. bonds or stop buying them, which pushes bond prices down, yields up, and mortgage rates higher. That’s what followed new White House tariff threats tied to Greenland and a tougher stance toward several countries. Foreign investors didn’t dump everything; they sold just enough to move the market — a warning shot ⚠️, not a crash — signaling, “We don’t like these policies, and we own a lot of your debt.” By Wednesday, the White House said there would be no new tariffs, but the damage was done and continues today.
Bottom line 🧭:
Mortgage rates didn’t rise because of inflation or the Fed. They rose because foreign investors pushed yields higher to send a political message — showing how fast global politics can show up in your mortgage quote. Important information you may want to check out.
Headlines to check out
- 2-3-2026 from The Economic Times
- 1-19-2026 from Economic Times
- 1-20-2026 from Reuters
- 1-20-2026 Japanese Sell-Off
Step #2: Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) Prices Today – Updated by 11:30 🕦 Early Predictions slight Dip 📢
🚨 The second piece in determining mortgage rates is the all-important Mortgage-Backed Securities. Historically, the 50-year average between the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS rates has hovered around 1.72%. Currently, the average range has plummeted from 2.528% on January 3rd, 2025.
📌 Today’s MBS Gap: Hero 🦸 or Villain 🦹 with prediction
📰 Mortgage Daily News reports that MBS prices have moved down slightly and could have a minimal impact on Mortgage Rates today. 🚨 Due to the FHFA Fed Policies, they are using the MBS Gap balance mortgage rates. Today, with little movement in UMBS pricing, today’s prediction is that mortgage rates will remain the same, and the MBS gap will be used to make the slight adjustment up, keeping mortgage rates at 6.20%
- 🦸 Hero Mode: When Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) prices go up, it means investors are willing to accept lower yields in exchange for the stability of mortgage payments. I don’t forsee a hero scenario today.
- ⚖️Balanced: Today’s yield at 4.230% plus yesterday’s MBS Gap of 1.922% would equal the potential rate of 6.15%.
- 🦹Villain Mode: Falling MBS prices mean investors demand higher yields to take on mortgage risk, creating upward pressure on mortgage rates.❌ Result: Lenders increase rates to keep spreads profitable or temporarily pause quoting. Additionally, when the yield skyrockets, 🚀 the Fed Security Desk or Freddie and Fannie 🏦 have been using the gap to correct and stabilize volatility in the Mortgage market. Buyers lose buying power, and the urgency to lock on a dip becomes critical. Today’s Math: the yield at 4.230, plus the slight increase in the MBS gap to 1.942% equal the potential rate of 9.17%.
Important 📢 Know Your Lender’s Policy on Rate Revisions – Morning vs Afternoon
⚠️ Before locking your rate, always understand how your Lender determines their daily mortgage rate. Remember: yield and MBS prices fluctuate throughout the day, so knowing the Lender’s timeline before locking your rate is crucial to saving. 🔏
📊 Mortgage Daily News article on the importance of understanding why lenders adjust mortgage rates midday. 💥Know your Lender’s 🏦 protocol for rate changes. 🔁💡 Do you offer rate revisions if the bond market shifts lower in the afternoon? ❓Know the WHY and save.💵
Today’s Actual Mortgage Rates: Updated by 1:00 🕐
Today’s Mortgage Rate: WHY Answered
Unfortunately, mortgage rates are not declining as quickly as they rose. The FHFA policy desk is keeping a tight lid on mortgage rates from increasing. The MBS gap was artificially compressed again today to offset the increase in yield. The bond market remains volatile. My concern is what will happen to mortgage rates when the FHFA policy desk must balance the books and manage risk. Last time the MBS prices were at this level, the gap was approximately 2.2%. If we take today’s yield at 4.278% and add the MBS gap at 2.2%, mortgage rates could increase to 6.48%. 🤯
Mortgage Rates trends
Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Gap
The real story behind the WHY mortgage rates are lower!
Why MBS Prices Are Being Compressed by the FHFA
📌 The MBS gap hasn’t been following the math consistently since August. 🧮 The FHFA Policy Desk is determining the outcome of where they want rates to land. Remember, the Federal Reserve doesn’t determine mortgage rates; instead, the 10-year Treasury yield (set by Treasury Department bond sales) and the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) gap, set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, do.
FHFA Policy Desk
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
Capital Markets Desks
⬇️⬇️⬇️
MBS Market
(Pricing & Spreads)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Lenders
(Rate Sheets)
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Borrowers
(Final Mortgage Rate)
Get online Mortgage Quotes from Mortgage Daily News⤵️Click to View.
Base Rate: adjustment not made for your FICO score, your down payment, location, purchase pric,e and MORE!
What My Crystal Ball Tells Me About the Future Mortgage Market
Based on months of prior bond auctions, we know Wall Street isn’t taking the bait. For investors to purchase bonds, they are demanding higher coupon rates. The Treasury needs to STOP🛑increasing the deficit; they are burning through cash. If we don’t get our spending in check and stop feeding the deficit, we won’t see a significant change in mortgage rates.
Next, we have a new problem: the White House is using tariffs as a weapon to get what it wants. The last fiasco, involving tariffs on countries that opposed the Greenland takeover, sent mortgage rates skyrocketing. WHY? Because countries hold Millions to Billions of our bond debt. When countries decide to sell bonds prematurely to get their message to the White House, their policies won’t be tolerated. That bond sell-off will cause the 10-year Treasury yield to spike, and mortgage rates will follow. The bond market is still volatile. If you understand the WHY, you can predict the next dip and save thousands over the lifetime of your loan.
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before you even start searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen to give you a clear view of market insights so you can make confident, informed decisions about your next steps! ✅✨
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