🏡 Wondering When Mortgage Rates Will Drop? 📉 Crack the Mortgage Rate Code breaks down the latest insights🔎 into what’s driving rates when they’re likely to fall and stabilize, and how you can time your home purchase to save big in Metro Detroit! 💰 Get expert tips, easy-to-follow strategies, and the confidence to lock in the best rate and make your smartest move yet! 🚀
🔮 Let’s Crack the Mortgage Rate Code and Save🏡💰 ~ Week Ending July 4, 2025
Hey, Metro Detroit neighbors! 👋 I’ll provide fresh economic insights on where mortgage rates are headed, along with detailed analysis, on a daily basis. Here, we don’t track the ” WHAT“; I’ll focus on the “WHY.” In time, you will learn how to predict those shifts to lock in the best rate at the right time. ⏳💡For Next week’s predictions, 🔮don’t miss What My Crystal Ball 🔮 is Telling Me Regarding Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit at the very end of this article. 💯🏆⤵️
✨Bookmark this post for your weekly insider scoop, and don’t forget to check and bookmark 🔖 Today’s Mortgage Rates: Know the Why and Save💲 for daily updates. Stay ahead of the game, time it right, and snag the best deal on your dream home! 🏠🔥
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📊 The Big Why: What Moved the Markets from 📉 to 📈?
I’m breaking down what happened in the mortgage market this week—because the movement was fast and fierce. 📅 On Monday, the average rate was 6.67%.🚀 By Thursday, they skyrocketed to 6.75%. That kind of whiplash doesn’t just happen by accident. It’s driven by real market forces—and if you understand the why, you’ll know how to lock your rate 🔏 on the dip, not the spike ‼️
1️⃣ Whiplash in the Market: How a Dip Became a Spike 🚨📈
At the start of the week, Wall Street was betting on weakness. The thinking? The Fed would cut interest rates by 0.25% in July. Traders expected unemployment to rise to 4.3%, signaling a soft job market. That belief caused the 10-year Treasury yield to dip, and mortgage rates followed. But things flipped—fast.
When news broke that tariff negotiations had stalled and July 9 was set for new trade penalties, concerns about inflation resurfaced. Tariffs raise prices, and the Fed is still using outdated inflation data. That cracked Wall Street’s confidence. Then came Thursday’s surprise: instead of rising, unemployment dropped to 4.1%. The labor market wasn’t weakening—it was holding firm. By Thursday morning, the market scrapped the idea of a July cut—and some even questioned whether the Fed would lower interest rates at all this year.
Then came the final blow. President Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” adding trillions in new debt. Global bond buyers—Canada, Mexico, the EU, China, and Japan—stepped back. With less demand, the U.S. had to raise yields to attract investors. 📈 As the 10-year Treasury yield surged, mortgage rates skyrocketed—rising nearly 0.08% in just 48 hours.
2️⃣ Jobs Report Schocked Markets 🧑🏭👷♀️
On Thursday, July 3, the June jobs and unemployment report surprised to the upside, with 147,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.1% (businessinsider.com).
That surprised markets 😱 and all but ended expectations of a Fed rate cut this summer. Lending futures pivoted toward “higher for longer,” keeping 10-year yields elevated.
3️⃣ Chaos in the Mortgage-backed Securites🔄
🔶The spike in 10-year Treasury yields hit mortgage-backed securities (MBS) hard. As bond yields rose, MBS prices dropped because investors demanded higher returns—meaning mortgage rates rose sharply alongside them. On Thursday, MBS prices plunged midday after the hot jobs report was released. They dropped about 6 ticks (.19), even as 10-year yields jumped over 6 bps—a rapid back-and-forth that clearly shook up mortgage rates.
♦️ Upcoming Auctions Cited as a Wildcard
Analysts flagged that the large Treasury supply from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” could suppress MBS further—though some priests of stability noted MBS might rebound next week, depending on auction demand. 🎢 Buckle up—another roller coaster ride may be just ahead!
4️⃣ What’s Driving the Mortgage Rate Spike This Week
📉 Early-week dip as Wall Street priced in a 0.25% Fed rate cut and expected unemployment to rise to 4.3%
📆 Tariff tension escalated with July 9 set for new trade penalties, sparking inflation fears
📊 Thursday’s surprise jobs report showed unemployment dropped to 4.1%, crushing hopes for a July rate cut
💣 President Trump signed the BBB, triggering massive new Treasury debt issuance
🌍 Foreign buyers pulled back (EU, Canada, Mexico, China, Japan), forcing higher Treasury yields
💸 Bond yields surged, and MBS prices dropped, pushing mortgage rates nearly 0.2% higher in 48 hours
⚠️ MBS market remained volatile, showing midday drops as much as 6 ticks after data hits
💬 No confidence in the Fed’s outdated inflation tools, causing Wall Street to rethink future rate cuts
💡 The bottom line?
The market can shift quickly, and don’t if we don’t stop feeding the deficit, everything will cost more — from cars 🚗 to homes 🏠 to your credit card APR 💳.🔮Based on watching trends, it doesn’t appear we will see a shift in the bond market until the deficit is under control. The Treasury is chasing its tail because it must offer a higher yield to get investors to buy bonds. However, investors are protesting the bond market due to the high deficit. The Treasury’s bond early prediction is that it will pay interest of around $952 billion, representing a roughly 8% increase from 2024, that’s before Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” 🔁 See its circle? It’s a self-inflicted loop dragging rates — and the economy — in the wrong direction.
🚨This is Dangerous And will Feed a new Spike If this happens Again!
🌍 Top 10 Foreign Bond Holders of the U.S. (as of January 2025)
💥Very Important💥 Foreign Fire Sale? 🔥 Could be BIG Trouble for the U.S. if Japan and China dump bonds in round 2! 💣 Roughly 33% of U.S. Treasury bonds are held by foreign countries, with Japan holding over $1 trillion. If these nations start dumping their bonds, it could flood the market, drive down bond prices, and lead to skyrocketing interest rates. That means higher mortgage rates, a weaker dollar, and more expensive debt for the U.S. government. For example, the Japanese foreign minister stated, “Japan’s $1 trillion U.S. Treasury Bond holdings could be a bargaining chip in trade talks.“ What sounds like “negotiation leverage” could quickly become economic extortion, hurting American borrowers, businesses, and taxpayers. 💣
🌍 Tracking Foreign Bond Holdings Matters:
When major players, such as Japan, China, or oil-exporting nations, shift their positions in U.S. Treasury securities, the ripple effect is immediate. With today’s escalating tariff tensions, the bond market has already begun to show signs of stress. A recent surge in bond sell-offs coincided with reports that China may have reduced its Treasury holdings—a calculated move signaling economic pressure back toward the White House. When foreign entities sell off U.S. debt, it drives bond prices down and yields up 📈—pushing mortgage rates higher and rattling financial markets. Tariffs and Bond sell-offs have taken warfare to a new level. 😨
💡In April, we saw what huge bond sell-offs did to the mortgage market. In 5 days, mortgage rates jumped from 6.60% to 7.09%. 👉 Moving forward, I’ll be watching the bond market closely and breaking it all down in Today’s Mortgage Rates—answering the WHY behind rate moves and what it means for your wallet.💵💵 Track all the graphs and trends here.‼️
⚠️Top 10 Foreign Bond Holders
📊 TOP 10 U.S. TRADING PARTNERS (GOODS ONLY) – 2025
📥 Top Import Partners
(Based on U.S. imports from these countries)
📤 Top Export Partners
(Based on U.S. exports to these countries)
🧭 Final Thought: Know Who Holds What—And Why It Matters
As the global economy shifts, watching our top trading partners and foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds is more important than ever.💡 Trading partners shape what we produce, what we consume, and how we price everyday goods. This directly affects jobs, wages, and household costs across America.💰 Foreign bondholders, meanwhile, influence mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and the long-term financial health of our economy.
In short:
🛠️ One drives our economic engine.
💵 The other fuels it.
And when either stumbles, the ripple effects can shake the entire U.S. market.
🚨 That’s why my focus is shifting. Traditional indicators, such as inflation and job reports, are no longer enough. Today, global capital flows and trade imbalances are setting the tone. I will watch 👀 our trading partners and foreign bondholders more closely in the future, as these are the new levers pulling today’s economy.
🔎 Review the Economic Reports that affect the bond and your mortgage Rate 📈📉
🔐 Macro Check: June Data & Mortgage-Rate Direction
Fresh economic releases poured in this last month — CPI, PPI, PCE, jobless claims, unemployment, and a sharply lower GDP revision. Will we see a gentle turn lower or the makings of a market firestorm? 🔥Let’s hope we can maintain our July target rate of 6.75%.
1️⃣ Inflation Reports Offer Relief – New updates in July
- CPI rose 0.1% in May, with core CPI at 2.8% — still elevated but easing
- PPI also increased by 0.1%, showing that supplier cost pressures are cooling
- PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 0.1% monthly and 2.3% annually
Effect on mortgage rates: Cooling inflation takes the pressure off the Fed, helping bond yields and mortgage rates move lower.📉
2️⃣ Labor Market strength Emerges
- Initial jobless claims have been up all month
- Unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, compared to 4.2% last month.
- ADP was a negative 0.33 in terms of adding new employees.
The unemployment numbers didn’t add up as a decline, based on examining the individual employment data; go figure. 🤷♀️
3️⃣ GDP Revised Down Sharply
The final Q1 GDP estimate was revised from –0.2% to –0.5%, with consumer spending falling more than expected. Effect on mortgage rates: Slower growth triggers recession fears, leading to increased bond buying and easing mortgage rate pressure. 🔻
4️⃣ Trend Shift or Firestorm Brewing?
This could mark the start of a new downward trend in rates: Inflation is easing, jobless claims are rising, and GDP is falling. Markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts
But there’s still a risk of a rate reversal. Sticky shelter inflation could stall PCE progress. A surprise CPI jump would rattle bond markets. Worsening job data could trigger risk premiums on mortgage-backed securities🤔
5️⃣ The “Big Beautiful” Deficit Bombshell
The proposed spending bill could sharply widen the federal deficit. The Treasury may need to flood the market with bonds to cover it. 😱 If foreign demand weakens, the Treasury may need to offer higher yields to attract buyers. It could get worse if foreign bondholders start dumping U.S. Treasuries, as we saw in April when Japan and China trimmed their holdings during a yield spike due to tariffs.
Effect on mortgage rates: More bond supply + weaker demand = rising Treasury yields → higher mortgage rates, even in a slowing economy.💣
🧠 Final Thought
This month’s data may point to lower mortgage rates, but the foundation is fragile. ⚠️If inflation flares 🔥, or if deficits push yields higher, today’s relief could turn into tomorrow’s surge. 👿 Keep your eye on the 10-Year Treasury, MBS spreads, and unemployment — the next move starts there. 👀
📎
What important Economic 🌩️ Reports that affect Mortgage Rates when posted:
🚨 Metro Detroit, we’re officially in uncharted territory! Now that tariffs are in play, last week’s bond market moves raised serious concerns about growing bets against America. 🏦 The traditional measuring stick for inflation 📏 is no longer a reliable indicator. Thanks to the volatility in the bond market and aggressive tariff moves, we’re watching a new set of rules unfold.🎢 Buckle up because following the daily trends is now critical.💥 Tap into the insights in 🔖 “Today’s Mortgage Rate: Crack the Code and Save” to stay ahead of the curve.
Scroll Through for June’s Economic Trends: last.
Important Dates to Watch ~ 💥These dates will impact mortgage rates immediately
📊 Under each graph, you’ll see a date that signals when mortgage rates could dip or spike. The mortgage market is highly volatile right now—and this first week of July proves it.📈 A shift in rates by just 0.08% can raise your monthly mortgage payment more than you’d expect.💡 That’s why it pays to watch the data and lock your rate on a dip, not a guess.
That’s a Wrap on the Economy for Q2 🎁
📊 Economists’ Mortgage Rate Projections for 2025: All measurements are out the window. 😤
Back in December, economists crunched the numbers to predict 2025 mortgage rates. There are no rules or benchmarks for economists to follow when projecting where mortgage rates are heading. For now, it’s how Tariffs are affecting the Bond market. YIKES!! 😬It appears that the economists are going to update their projections and hope that by December, rates will be at 6.5%. Economists are now predicting mortgage rates could flirt closer to 7% in July. 🚨 Tariff policies will set the tone.
📩 Stay Ahead & Save Big! Want to stay ahead of the curve? ❓ Get real-time mortgage rate alerts 📊, text updates 📲, and expert insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss your chance to lock in the best rate! 🚀💰
📢 How to Keep Up to Date ⤵️
✅ Daily Updates: Today’s Mortgage Rate – What’s Driving the Change? 📉 Stay on top of daily mortgage rate shifts and see exactly what’s moving the market. Plus, compare mortgage rates from different lenders to find the best deal! 💰💡
- 🏡 Home Price vs. Mortgage Rate: Unlock Your Purchasing Power 💪 – Now is the time to create a smart plan! Should you buy now while prices are lower and refinance later when rates drop? Or wait for lower mortgage rates, knowing home prices could rise? I’ll help you break it down so you can confidently calculate your monthly payment. 📊💲
- 📊 Mortgage Payment Calculator Tools – I’ve provided two types of Mortgage Calculators. 1. How much of a home can you afford? 🏠💰2. Mortgage Calculator for monthly payment. Estimate your mortgage payment based on current rates. 📉
- 📈 Home Prices & Real Estate Trends by City – Access live Multiple Listing Service (MLS) graphs tracking real estate trends! 🎯 Start with county-wide data, then zoom in to see trends by city and price range for a detailed market breakdown. 🔍📍
- 📩 Real Estate Insider Newsletter – Want exclusive rate alerts & market updates sent straight to you? Sign up now and get the latest trends delivered right to your inbox! 🚀📬Home
🔎 Cracking the Mortgage Rate Code
Every day, I break down WHY mortgage rates rise or fall daily—so you don’t have to guess! 📉📈 Want to stay ahead? I highly recommend 🔖 bookmarking “Today’s Mortgage Rates” for daily updates on what’s moving the market.
The Weekly Review 🗓️
At the end of this post, I’ll reveal 🔮 What My Crystal Ball is Telling Me About Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit! ⤵️🔮Stay tuned! 🚀🏡💰Now more than ever, you’ll need to track daily rates. ⤴️
📊 Step #1 ~ Track the 10-Year Treasury Yield ~ Your Base # was a hot mess all week🥺
To crack the mortgage rate code, you need to know one key fact: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Instead, the 10-year Treasury Yield is the base number for daily mortgage rates. 📊💡Where the yield goes, mortgage rates follow. Understanding these market shifts is KEY 🔑 to predicting where rates are headed next! 🚀🏡💰FOLLOW the BOND Market!
Step #2 ~ 💥 Yield + MBS Gap + Mortgage Rates 💥
💥 This is the most critical piece of the puzzle! 💥 If you want to predict mortgage rate movements, you must understand Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). 📊 Once you grasp these trends, you’ll know exactly when to lock your rate and buy your new home confidently, knowing you‘re saving money. 🔑💰
💡 How to Calculate Mortgage Rates
📊 Breaking it down on the Right: 🗓️ Current Mortgage Rates for the week
🔹 The teal graph represents the 10-year Treasury Yield Rate. 📉
🔸 The orange graph shows the MBS Price Gap Rate.📊
➕ Add them together, and you get the mortgage rate—your top number! 💡🏠
Now, let’s talk about the “What-If” on the left scenario. 📉📈 The left-side graph highlights why tracking the MBS Gap Rate is crucial—it directly affects your mortgage rate! Keeping an eye on this gap can help you predict when rates will rise or fall before they do.
🗓️Historical Trends: What the Past Tells Us: 📊 Over the past 50 years, the average MBS Price Gap Rate was 1.72%.📉 In March 2020, when the government stepped in to support the economy, the MBS Gap Rate jumped to 2.75%. At one point, the MBS Gap was higher in the 3.0% range, and Mortgage rates were pushed to 8%. 🚀
Scroll Through the Weekly Mortgage Rates vs. The What If💥One Word describes this week ~ Whiplash
Orange = MBS Gap
Teal = 10 =year Treasury Yield
CLICK THE PICTURE TO ENLARGE
📢 The Secret to Tracking When Mortgage Rates Will Drop! 🔥📉
It’s all about supply and demand! 🔄 Investors must trust the economy and gain confidence in the mortgage market. When they add MBS to their portfolios, demand increases, the MBS Gap Rate shrinks, and mortgage rates fall.
📊 MBS Gap Trends ~ The Unsung Hero 🏆or Silent Killer ⚡
💥 The key to lower mortgage rates? The Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Price Gap! 💥 A steady increase in Prices week-over-week and a declining MBS Gap signal that rates are finally trending down and stabilizing. 📉🏡 For months, the MBS market has been in correction mode, but now we need a shift to more mortgage supply, stronger buyer demand, and MBS prices moving back to the 101+ range. 📊💰 Keep watching this trend—it’s the key to permanently unlocking lower mortgage rates in Metro Detroit, not the yo-yo we’ve been experiencing! 🚀💵
📌 The MBS Price Gap didn’t decline due to rising prices; it declined as a result of the Fed’s behind-the-scenes adjustments, which adjusted the MBS gap to offset the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield.
🤔 Who’s Pulling the Strings Behind Mortgage Rates When the bond yield spikes?
🏆 MBS Price Gap has been our hero this week, keeping mortgage rates lower despite spiking the 10-year treasury yield. 📈 Who makes those decisions?
🔹 It’s often the Federal Reserve, especially the New York Fed Desk. Even when they’re not doing Quantitative Easing (QE), they’re active behind the scenes. They rebalance portfolios, roll over maturing securities, monitor the increase in mortgage demand, and reinvest principal payments. 💼 It’s done behind the scenes at their discretion.
These quiet moves help stabilize spreads and prevent sudden spikes in mortgage rates. You won’t see it in headlines, but it plays a huge role. 💡♦️ The Treasury creates the pressure (by issuing more bonds). 🔷 The Fed is the only one who can relieve it (by influencing rates or supporting MBS demand). Neither sets the MBS gap directly, but the Fed can nudge it lower through policy or buying signals.
Mortgage Rate Trends for the Last 4 Months ~
The trends are mortgage base rates, which don’t reflect your credit score, down payment, or lender points.
📉 When Will Mortgage Rates Drop and Stabilize?
The big question❓ remains: When will rates stabilize and keep trending down? 🤔💰 For mortgage rates to hit 6.25%, the 10-year Treasury yield and MBS Gap Rate must align perfectly, just like in the graph below! 👇📉🏡 Keep an eye on these trends to track when rates will drop. 📉💰For a lasting drop, we need to see two key shifts:
1️⃣ Federal government spending must be controlled 💰🚫—constantly raising the debt ceiling adds uncertainty to the bond market and increases the yield (interest rates treasury pays) at note auctions.
2️⃣ Tariffs and inflation must be monitored closely 📊🔥—new tariffs could drive up costs, making it harder for the Fed to reach its 2% inflation target 🎯.
🔮Based on watching trends for years, it doesn’t appear that we won’t see a significant shift in the bond market until the deficit is under control. The Treasury is chasing its tail because it must offer a higher yield to get investors to buy bonds. But investors are protesting the bond market due to the high deficit. When the bonds are sold, the Treasury’s early prediction is that it will pay interest of around $952 billion, representing a roughly 8% increase from the 2024 level.
The last Time Mortgage Rates were around 6.25%
🏡 Let’s Decode the Mortgage Market Together! 💰🔎
Let’s Connect ⤵️
Wow! 🤯 There’s a lot to take in, but don’t worry—I’ve got you! Mastering this step is key before searching for your dream home. 🔑Understanding how mortgage rates are determined and how to negotiate with lenders on rates and fees can save you thousands over time. 💵 But it doesn’t have to be complicated! Let’s simplify the process together.📅 Schedule a Zoom call with me, and we’ll review the data step by step. I’ll share my screen, giving you a clear view of market insights so that you can make confident and informed decisions about your next steps. ✅✨Got questions❓ or prefer a quick chat 💬Call or Text 📞 248-343-2459. I’m here to help anytime! 🆘 Stay current and ahead of your future competition by visiting the website for updated articles 3 to 4 times a week. Mortgage Rates are updated daily.
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What My Crystal Ball 🔮 is Telling Me about Future Mortgage Rates in Metro Detroit
My crystal ball 🔮 is so upset. Inflation is still volatile, ⚠️ and the bond market is fighting for its survival. 🆘 Moving forward, I’ll be expanding my watch 👀 to help bring the future back into focus. 🔮⤵️ “Most people don’t remember the Carter economy—but if this keeps going, they’re about to live through something a whole lot worse.” My mortgage during that time was 17.5%; yep, it could happen again. This isn’t political; I’m just following the numbers.” 👍
🚨 The last time we faced a similar crisis, we had high inflation, high unemployment, and a national debt of $900 billion. Today? We’re staring down $35 trillion in debt—and it’s still rising under the new Big Beautiful Bill. 💣 This is why we keep an eye on the numbers. 💡 Because the headlines won’t warn you 🚨—but the data will.💡
📉 Bond Market Turmoil vs. Economic Trends
Starting on April 4, the bond market in Metro Detroit and beyond experienced serious drama. A sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries echoed the 2020 “dash for cash,” shaking Wall Street’s confidence. 📈 Investors began dumping U.S. dollars and Treasuries, signaling concerns about financial system instability. Some experts even suggest a brief recession may be needed to restore balance. U.S. Treasury bond holdings could serve as a bargaining chip in the tariff negotiations. I think it’s more like economic extortion. 😱 This volatility is far from over. It just carries over week after week. 👿
🧭 Recession Verdict: Hard Landing Likely?
It’s no longer talk—many believe the U.S. economy is heading toward a hard landing. 📉 Between volatile bonds, sky-high tariffs, and shrinking confidence, warning signs are everywhere. Expect inflation spikes, supply chain delays, and tighter lending conditions ahead.
🚨‼️ Now more than ever, I recommend bookmarking 🔖 “Crack Today’s Mortgage Rates and Save.” Please don’t count on the crystal ball🔮; we are now in uncharted territory. Request our newsletter, and I’ll keep you updated with breaking news. 🆘🛟
💥 Heads up: Inflation measurements moving forward won’t tell the full story 😕 because of the tariff policies. The storm may still be forming. 🌪️🔮If you have questions 📲 text or 📞call 248-343-2459!
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